A New Method For Calculating The Influence Of The Vital Events

Vital events, such as the world Expro altogether with the Olympic games and the Football world cup, must have effect to the economic development of the nation(or the area).Research on the economic influence of vital events is very significant,but there are many measure indexes of economic development in the social economics, the correlation of which is complex,so it is rather difficult to calculate the influence of the vital events. In order to research needs, We usually just select the most important and the most comprehensive index in numerous economic indicators, we can calculate the influence of the vital even through quantitative analysis of the vital events of the influence to the certain economic index.This paper proposes horizontal comparative method to calculate the influence of the vital events to the certain economic index. Horizontal comparative method compares the economic index of the country (area) in the same period and other countries (area), find out the intrinsic relation and further estimate the influence.First of all, we choose several countries (area) to establish frame of reference through correlation analysis and association analysis on recent index data of these contries(area);secondly,we establish regression equation between the country (area) and the selected analogue contries (area);at the last, we estimates the theoretical value of the country (area) by analogue contries’(area) value, the difference between the actual value and the theoretical value is the influence value of the vital events to the certain economic index,the value can measure the economic influence of vital events.This paper also gives how we can calculate the influence of the vital event when the economic index value is unknown, we build time series through previous economic data, establish the model in accordance with time series analysis and forecast the actual index value, then we calculate the influence of the vital event though horizontal comparative method. Furthermore, taking the influence of the Shanghai World Expo to China’s GDP growing rate as an example, We calculated the influence to the national GDP growing rate in accordance with horizontal comparative method after the event, at the same time,we establish the prediction model of GDP growing rate, there is little difference between the influence value caculated priorly through the prediction model and the influence value caculated after the event.This paper proposes horizontal comparative method, this method is novel,it provides a kind of effective and unity measuring method to calculate the influence of Vital events such as the world Expro and the Olympic games, It’s easy to understand, but Because of my limited ability, we don’t consider problem comprehensively and clearly, it still has some flaws,we need to study and improve further in a variety of ways.