The Study On Climate Variability Characteristic And Impacts On Planting Structure Of Tai’an During The Recent Thirty Years

Climate change influences agricultural production by causing the water/thermal condition changed.People take different measures to adapt to effects brought by climate change.Understanding and grasping climate variation rules can help to attend good and avoid harm,and then achieve plentiful harvest.Taking Tai’an for example,on the base of climate dates and statistical yearbook from1981to2010,we carry out a research into the climate variation rules and its impacts on cultivated land and planting structure by the method of trend test,regression analysis and building models.Then,we explored the agricultural regionalization and countermeasures in the coming30years.The research has mainly obtained the following achievements:(1)Due to the influences of global nature,humane and local conditions,the climate warming of Tai’an was outstanding in the recent thirty years with the temperature increaseed0.8℃,and the90’s increaseed obviously(the rate was0.373℃perlOyears),while the diurnal temperature become smaller and the temperature of Dongping was less than others;The interannual precipitation changed largely which appeared weak increasing trend,and the precipitation increased167.9mm(the rate was30.146mm per10y ears). Besides,the drought is frequent.Precipitation in Xintai was the most and change larger in Dongping. Moreover,the climate develops toward the direction of warm-wet,which is opposite in recent years.(2)As climate changing,the amount and distribution of cultivated land changed greatly.The model is:Y=553212.6-15118.7C-19.99P±10706.06(Y-the amount of cultivated land,C-temperature,P-precipitation),which can simulate the impact of climate change on the cultivated land.The amount of cultivated land reduced42335hm2from1981to2007,while added12252hm2from1981to2009.On the predicted climate condition,there will be318778hm2cultivated land.Besides,climate change damaged the soil environment to a certain degree.(3)Climate change influenced the planting structure largely,and it mainly reflected from the aspects of growth,production,planting area,plant diseases and insect pests soil investion.etc.Taking grape,cotton and oil crops for exzample,the article builds a series of models through deep analyzing the mechanism of the impact of climate change on planting structure and crop yield.It shows that climate change can help to boost production,the total planting area and the oil crops planting area.On the other side,it reduced the planting area of grain crops and cotton crops.During the recent thirty years,the total planting area added98680hm2(Ningyang county was the most obvious);Grain crops planting area reduced9154hm2(The urban was the most obvious);Cotton crops planting area reduced8422hm2(Feicheng county was THE most obvious);Oil crops planting area added6721hm2(NingYang county was the most obvious).(4)We make the agricultural regionalization in the coming30years based on models:There will be318778hm2cultivated land in2020,while the total planting area588106hm2,the grain crops369063hm2,the cotton crops5099hm2,the oil crops49610hm2.We divide the index of cultivated land and planting area according to the climate characteristic;Disadvantage for climate change,agricultural production should choose hardier plants that are more resistant to high temperature,drought and pests,adjust planting structure properly,strengthen the construction of farmland infrastructure and the capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation,and promote ecological agriculture and shelter.etc.