Application And Risk Analysis Of Earthquake Early Warning System

As a new development of earthquake monitoring technology and newmeasurement to mitigate earthquake disasters, earthquake early warningsysyem utilizes seismic instruments to obtain observational data quickly andthen measure seismic parameters in order to publish arrival time andintensity,etc before destructive seismic waves arrive. It has been appliedwidely in countries such as Japan, USA and Mexico as well as region likeTaiwan, China and yields notable progress in disaster prevention andreduction. With the implementation of seismic network under the Tenth andEleventh Five Years Key Programs for Science and Technology Development,the density of earthquake monitoring has been enhanced and primaryoptimization for network distribution as well as real-time sharing ofearthquake data been achieved, by which the earthquake early warning systemfor some region has been made possible and thus laid the foundation of thefurther improvement of national earthquake early warning and rapid intensityreporting system. The main work of this paper is as follows:(1) In this paper, we design several questionnaires for the application ofearthquake early warning system and thus obtain concerning information toassess its social effects. Based on results of the questionnaire, theunderstanding and demand of the public of the system are identified so thatthe acceptance level for risk factors such as missing report and false alarm aswell as legal issues involved will be confirmed. Combined with applicationand developmental trend both at home and abroad, proposals and suggestionswill be included in the paper as a reference for the establishment of Chinaearly warning system.(2) The paper summarizes risk assessments methods most commonlyused in the application and finally select system dynamic method. Accordingto the structure of earthquake early warning system, information concerningrisks will be collected in the observation platform, processing platform as wellas services platform. Through system dynamic method, risk identificationmodel which includes the formation of risk factors and feedback informationwill be also established.(3) In accordance with the analysis of the risk assessments methods, riskfactors such as network distribution, early warning model and blind zone thatare in most cases difficult to identify with historical data and past experience will be handled effectively. Based on GIS, the paper builds a simulationanalysis platform and provides suitable assessment methods for each riskfactor. The situation of cities includes Lanzhou, Beijing and Fuzhou is takenas an example to illustrate the overall trend of observation platform.(4) The efficiency of the system is studied based on results taken fromBeijing and Lanzhou. Starting from avoidable loss, operation cost andmaintenance cost and based on system dynamic method, a model foreconomic and social benefits will be made, especially for the social gains forLanzhou over the next10years.The paper mainly discusses the application and risk factor of theearthquake early warning system and provides some suggestions for theimprovement of the system based on survey results. Ａsimulation analysisplatform based on GIS is built to handle and assess those risk factors.Assessment over the social benefits of the early warning system will offer auseful reference for the decision-making in the practical application of thesystem.