Research On Quantitative Geological Disaster Risk Evaluation Of Long Distance Pipeline

Since the21st century, long distance oil and gas pipeline has become globalenergy transport arteries, providing strong power for rapid social progress and thedevelopment. As the rapidly development of Chinese economy and social, longdistance oil and gas pipeline construction has gone into the rush hour. Because of thepipeline running for long time and through long distance, safety problem is gettingworse, especially in some geological conditions and geomorphologic conditions ofcomplex mountainous area, the geology disasters become the number one risk of thepipe safe operation. But pipeline risk evaluation of geological disasters in researchand application is less, especially in quantitative risk assessment。So, this essayattempts to study the technology in quantitative risk assessment of pipeline geologicaldisasters.Through to study existing domestic geological disaster risk assessment theoryand method as the foundation, and then unify the domestic and foreign pipelinegeological disasters risk evaluation method and technology, the pepper settled up theappropriate quantitative risk system method. For the country’s long distance pipelinegeological disaster.The paper chooses the most important geological disaster influencing thepipeline as species of risk assessment: collapse, landslide and debris flow, goafcollapse, pipe damaged by flood and loess soil. According to the characteristics of thegeological disasters and pipeline failure principle, first, make preliminaryidentification of disaster risk category for the more targeted risk assessment; second,divided traditional hazard and vulnerability index of geological disasters into fivemodules: disaster probability, disaster prevention, pipeline failure probability, pipelineprotection and pipeline failure consequences.Disaster probability mainly analyses hazard-formative (disaster) index, rainfall,topography and landforms, rocks, etc; pipeline failure probability mainly analyseshazard-affected body (pipe) of the affected index, pipeline buried depth, pipe positionand installation method, etc; disaster protection and pipeline protection for disaster indexs are respectively related to pipeline itself. The weight of risk indexes can bedetermined by using analytic hierarchy process. Each index corresponding to adifferent state is assigned by value and normalized, so as to realize the quantificationof pipeline failure probability. The consequences of failure is assessed by Kentpipeline failure consequences evaluation model.Finally, the paper combines both probability and consequence indexes toestablish the risk evaluation matrix and grade for risk assessment of different pipelinegeological disaster. From calculation and analysis, evaluation result is quite satisfied,and can achieve the practical application requirement.