Research On Collaborative Strategies For Electric Coal Supply Under Uncertain Condition

With the rapidly growing economy, the electricity demand increases greatly. The supply and demand of the electric coal are unbalanced, and the coal is in short supply. Moreover, influenced by the fluctuations of the domestic and international energy market, the coal supply fluctuates greatly in the thermal coal market. It has posed a challenge to the coal supply chain management that how to integrate and optimize the cost elements between the electric coal supply enterprise and the thermal power enterprise in the supply chain, and how to make the operation o f electric coal supply chain stay steady.This paper discusses the status and problems of electric coal supply chain management are discussed, and the necessity of the establishment of electric coal supply strategic alliance between the electric coal supply enterprise and thermal power enterprise is studied. In view of many unknown factors in real electric coal supply environment, this paper adopts fuzzy theory to describe the uncertainty, and constructs quantity discounts collaborative mechanism model under uncertain electric coal supply time and repurchase collaborative mechanism model under uncertain electric coal quality respectively. The electric coal supply time and defect rate of coal quality are assumed to be triangular fuzzy variables. The profit models of coal supply enterprise, thermal power enterprise and the electric coal supply chain are established separately. And their benefits are investigated under the decentralized decision-making schema and centralized decision-making schema.In theoretical, it is proved that the establishment of strategic alliance between electric coal supply enterprise and thermal power enterprise can optimize the overall electric coal supply chain profits. The optimal electric coal supply strategies under two kinds of collaborative mechanisms are presented. Combing with the numerical example, the effectiveness of the model and collaborative mechanisms are verified. And the influence of the fuzziness of electric coal supply time and defect rate of coal quality on the optimal strategies is investigated. It provides reference value for the formulation of coal supply strategies and achievement of electric coal supply collaborative effect.