The Urbanization And Culitivated Land Change In Liaoning Province: An Empirical Study

The development history of economy is the development history of the city. The urbanization is the symbol of human society civilization. And the development of urbanization must accompany the industrialization of the economy, while population migration from rural areas to cities, these will increase the demand for agricultural land. The development of the city need land, and as the most important agricultural production input elements, cultivated land is the necessary condition of human reproduction. In short,at present the contradiction between urban construction and the protection of arable land has become urgent question. As a big country, China must keep the cultivated in a high level at quantity and quality. Only in this way can China guarantee the agricultural production and the social stability. If there is not enough land to support the economy devrlopment in city. It will influence the whole economy in negative impact, even damage the normal life of residents. The city expansion once restrict from the land, it will make the land price in centre of the city go up to a very high level.Then the commercial housing rents and prices will raise so that price can not play the role of resource allocation. So the current decision makers should concern and slove the problem about the contradiction between unbran and rural development. It is very important for the long term development to create effective management thought and model.This paper introduces the background of cultivated land protection problem during the urbanization process of Liaoning Province. Then it analyses the urbanization development history and stages in China and to Liao ning Province. After the discuss of the theoretical relationships between urbanization and culitivated land protection, this paper use the cultivated change data of Liao ning Province to confirm the correlation and reasonable relationship between them. This part is the foundation of later data collection and analysis.In order to find out the basic problems in the urbanization process of liao ning Province, this paper forecasts the urbanzation level of nationwide and Liao ning Province respectively. The national data from 1978 to 2009 and Liaoning data from 1980 to 2009 are the input data of this paper. The forecast results indicate the gap and growing trend between them. These results can help the paper to find the basic problems in Liaoning Province urbanization and the solutions. Then, this paper uses the data about urbanization level and culitivated land area from 1980 to 2009 in Liaoning Province to build a simple linear model. The quantitative and qualitative relationship between them are shown through this model analysis. Afterwards, the cointegration test and Granger causality test are applied to analyze their causal relationship. The quantitative software results show that:(1) The ubanization level and culitivated land area in liaoning Province exist a negative correlation from the quanlitative pespective; The mean total culitivated land area will decrease at 48.36 thousand acres while the urbanization level rise one percent. (2) On the 10% significant level, the urbanziation level and cultivated land area interact each other, even as both cause and effect in long-term and short-term. And on the 5% significant level, urbanization is the reason of the change in culitivated land in the short term. This result shows that the occpation of urbanization in cultivated land is very obvious, however, the change of cultivated land can not influence the urbanization in a large extent. In teh short term, because of the income gap between urban and rural, the land expropriation earning of government, the change of cultivated land will lead to the change of urbanization level; but in the long term, along with the continuous decrease of cultivated land area and the cultivated land protection from government, the conflict between the expansion of city and the cultivated land protection is getting worse. If the quality of cultivated land can not be enhanced properly, the urbanization process will be subject to some extent. Finally, according to the theoretical analysi and empirical research results, this paper puts forward policy suggestions for the harmonious development bwteen urbanzation and cultivated land protection in Liaoning Province.