Study On Predicting The Size Of Rural Settlement And Differentiating Management In China

In the pace of urbanization is accelerating today, a large number of ruralpopulation into the city, which resulting in the reduction of the resident ruralpopulation and the increase of the land scale per capita, the increase of constructionland and the reduction of arable land, and many of the contradictions. Control andadjustment of the scale of rural residential land, will be the focus of the work in ruralat present and even decades after.Based on the analysis of status of rural settlements, change of land use, type ofland-use and estimation of land scale, and other studies reviewed, I found that becauseof the lack of the total size of rural settlements study and differentiated managementpolicy research, many policies are implemented ineffective these years. Therefore,this paper's research object is the whole country and the smallest reserch unit is theprefecture-level city, the philosophy is intensive land use, the idea is"Total control,Partition manager", focused on the zoning and land size estimates of the type of ruralresidential land in China. The major findings include:(1) Using the land-use change data and the statistical yearbook data, analysis ofthe historical changes of the national scale of rural residential land;(2) Using the ARMA time series model and the logistic curve model to predictthe years when China's urbanization level reached saturation in2047and and thepopulation respectively is159,782.37million;(3) Comparison of the town planning standards and the results of previousstudies, when the urbanization level reached saturation in China, the rural residentialland per capita scale is71.43-107.14km2per person and the limit scale of ruralsettlements is28747.14km2;(4) Using the spatial overlay of GIS and measurement of statistical methods,utilize the prefecture-level city of the smallest reserch unit, divided into differenttypes of natural and geographical and socio-economic type;(5) For different types of rural settlements, proposed the limits of scale and percapita land size.