Empirical Study Of Relations Between Inbound Tourism Consumption And Economic Growth In Shandong Province

Since China started the reform and opening-up in 1979, the inbound tourism industry of Shandong has maintained a steady and rapid development. The proportion of inbound tourism consumption in GDP has increased from 0.06% in 1979 to 0.36% in 2009. Although the proportion of inbound tourism consumption in GDP is not high, the inbound tourism is a comprehensive and correlated industry. We should not neglect how the inbound tourism industry promotes GDP.How to measure the relationship between the inbound tourism consumption and the growth of GDP and how to optimize the related industry layout is becoming an important problem to be solved.This paper mainly adopts qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis method. In the qualitative analysis part, we systematicly describe the inbound tourism of Shandong province, then we find out the problem and potential of the inbound tourism in Shandong province. In the quantitative analysis part, we conducted analysis on the long-term relationship between the inbound tourism consumption and GDP, as well as the short-term relationship between the constituent parts of the inbound tourism consumption and the GDP. The results show that the long-term equilibrium relationship exists between those designated variables. As the inbound tourism consumption increases by 1%, the GDP will be increased by 0.984%. The impulse response analysis and variance decomposition figure show that there exists a short-term interactive relationship among those key elements. The consumption of entertainment, transportation and shopping promote the growth of GDP greatly, so Shandong province should encourage the investment of relevant areas. The consumption of accommodation, catering, and visit promote the growth of GDP non-significant, so the government should continue the relevant policies and investment construction plan. This research has important practical value to improve the contribution of the inbound tourism consumption on economic contribution in Shandong province. At the same time, it provides some reference to develop the economic tourism.