Risk Assessment Of BOT Projects Based On Sensitivity Analysis

With the development of BOT project in our country, it plays a more and more important role in the society. Compared with traditional projects, there have different risks in BOT project, making the risk assessment in BOT projects becoming the core issues of common concern of different projects participants. Therefore, the research on risk assessment of BOT projects is great theoretical and practical significance to the assessment, prevention, and control of risk in BOT project.This paper comments the meaning and characteristics of BOT projects systematically, analyzing the main risk factors which affect the successful implementation of BOT projects. On this basis, uses sensitivity analysis method to evaluate the risk of BOT projects, in-depth analyzing the limitations of the sensitivity analysis method applying to BOT project risk assessment, and amending the limitations to guarantee the BOT project risk assessment accuracy. The main contents is as follows:Firstly, this paper expounds the specific mode of BOT projects, operational procedures, and license agreements specifically. Apply the checklist method to analyze the risk factors BOT project. By comparison BOT project risk evaluation method, combining the characteristics of risk factors for BOT projects, selects the method of sensitivity analysis to evaluate the risk of BOT projects.Secondly, through the in-depth study on sensitivity analysis, this paper points out the shortcomings on the fluctuation extent and volatility of uncertain factors when sensitivity analysis applys to BOT project risk evaluation. Then combine sensitivity analysis with probabilistic analysis, it introduces the modified sensitivity coefficient of which modifys the fluctuation range of uncertain factors. It further enhances the authenticity of uncertain factors changes which improves the accuracy that sensitivity of risk assessment applys to BOT projects. Analyzes the sensitivity analysis evaluation process on BOT project, and expounds the whole process including determination the uncertain factors of BOT project, selecting the economic index and the trading range, calculation the sensitivity coefficient and the threshold, estimation the degree of risk.Finally, Through a simple case to verify the conclution, this paper compares the results of risk assessment before modification with the results of risk assessment after modification, and further demonstrates the accuracy. This paper aims to identify an effective method of BOT project risk assessment. It can provide good suggestions to the project manager's decision, so that ensure the target to be realize smoothly.