Yunnan Province, The Measurement Of The Energy Consumption And Economic Growth Analysis

The energy industry of Yunnan has been developing rapidly since our nation put the great western development policy into practise in 1990s and the energy consumption within Yunnan province has increased sharply. With the increase of energy consumption, Yunnan's economic development has been speeded up greatly. This essay analyzes the present situation of energy consumption within Yunnan province in the first place and then the connection between energy consumption and economic growth by using qualitative method and quantitative method. The aim of this essay is to test and verify whether the total energy consumption of Yunnan and main components of energy could influence Yunnan's economic growth by doing research.Analyzing the recent economic growth trend and energy consumption, it turns out to be that there exists connection which changes periodically between the two, reasonable explanation upon this can be made on the basis of the adjustment for industrial economy structure and energy consumption constitution. Influences on economic growth made by the consumption of different kind of energy are not the same. This essay makes measure detections and analysis towards the total energy consumption of Yunnan since 1990 and its constituent parts (the consumption of coal, oil, natural gas, water and electricity), then separately calculates the output elasticity towards economic growth and makes comparison in the end. There exists one-way Granger casual relationship between Yunnan's GDP growth and the total energy consumption while it is a long-term and harmonious relationship between coal consumption oil consumption natural gas consumption water and electricity consumption with GDP growth judging from the outcome of Johansen cointegration and Granger causality. Among these,1% increase of coal consumption in the short term will result in approximate 0.06% GDP growth; 1% increase of oil consumption will result in approximate 0.03% GDP growth; 1% increase of natural gas consumption will result in approximate 0.03% GDP growth; 1% increase of water and electricity consumption will result in approximate 0.02% GDP growth. The increase of total energy consumption and the amount of consumption in coal, oil natural, water and electricity will play an improving role in economic growth. Combine the outcome of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis with external economies of energy consumption constitution, this essay puts forward some suggestions towards the pattern of energy consumption of Yunnan in the future and the optimization of energy mix, namely, insist the energy sustainable development strategy in Yunnan's "11th 5-Year Plan", scale down the consumption of coal and oil, raise the consumption percentage of clean energy of natural gas, water and electricity among all the energy consumption to make a diversified energy consumption structure, and then formulate scientific and rational energy consumption policies to make sure the sustainable development of energy consumption during Yunnan's "12th 5-Year Plan"...