Impact Assessment On Economy In China For Carbon Taxation Policy Based On CGE Model

With the continuous development of international economy, the issue of climate change has also been caught more and more attention. In 2005, the global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration reached 379ppm, the highest in 0.65 million years, and the global average surface temperature by rise by 0.74℃, global warming will seriously affect the human environment and ecology and the development of low-carbon economy is the inevitable choice. Determination of effective policy system is the cornerstone of the development of low-carbon economy, efficient and effective policy can promote low-carbon economy and carbon tax is a good policy instrument with rich economic efficiency.We build a CGE(Computable General Equilibrium Model) with seven departments based on general equilibrium theory to analyze the implementation of a carbon tax on China's high pollution, high energy-consumption sectors(such as coal policy, petrochemical, power and building) ,as well as on China's overall macroeconomic impact. The modeling theory and policy analysis process can provide method support for other policy analysis, it can also provide effective means for carbon tax on the industry. This article includes six chapters around the CGE modeling principles and applications: Chapter I is the introduction of the research background and current situation of CGE research at home and abroad. Chapter II is all about CGE model building theory. Chapter III is the specific CGE model building process, including the production module, the income module, the consumption module, the module of foreign trade and the balance and macro-closure module, this paper described the detailed information of each module ,such as the principles and equations. In the fourth chapter, establishment of SAM (Social Accounting Matrix) table- the CGE data base and the preparation of the model parameters are the main contents. In chapter V, we solved the model by GAMS software and made detailed analysis of the results. The lase part of this paper are some conclusions and outlook.