GIS-Assisted Analysis Of The Evaluation Of The National Oil Supply Security

Oil security is a core element of the nation's energy security, and the national oil supply security is the most important part of the nation's oil security system. With the rapid development of China's economy, China now becomes the world's second largest oil consumer. But the oil reserves and productions of China itself are far beyond meeting the domestic demands. The rising indicator of dependence on foreign oil has drawn lots of concerns to the nation oil security.While in the process of studying the national oil supply security evaluation system, based on the combination of Delphi method and Mean square method, this paper introduces the concept of―risk controllable factor‖, and tentatively builds a model of multi-indicator weighting based on the instinctive awareness of risk. Applied the model to the national oil supply security evaluation system the results turn out to be satisfying.This paper builds a world oil resource analyzing model and oil transportation security analyzing model by utilizing Geographical Information System (GIS) in analyzing the factors of threatening the national oil supply security. By using the feature of spatial visualizing output that GIS provides, it analyses the current situation and trend of the national oil supply security. It broadens the practice of GIS applications, and also provides a new tool for the decision support of security evaluation.The results of the evaluation show that at current, China's oil supply security is impacted mostly by indicators of Dependence on foreign oil, Oil reserve-production ratio and Transport safety. In the short term, the effective way to reduce oil security risk is to implement diversification strategy of crude oil imports and accelerate the establishment of the strategic oil reserve system.