| Civil aviation industry is a strategic industry, which has an impact on a wide area, long industrial chain, high technology diffusion rate, and strong coupling effects. Civil aviation industry can lead group breakthrough of key technologies in many fields, drive rapid development of many hi-tech industries, science and technology, and national economy. The civil aviation industry in Shanghai has long history and solid foundation, having gone through starting stages of aircraft maintenance, then developing Y-10 aircraft with our own effort, manufacturing MD-82/83 and MD90-30 aircrafts with McDonnell-Douglas Corporation, undertaking subcontract tasks of parts and components of A320 and B737, and commencing on developing Chinese new regional aircraft ARJ21 with our own effort. Therefore, civil aviation industry in Shanghai has experienced the whole development period of national civil aircraft over 60 years, which plays an important role in national civil aviation industry. Large aircraft project had been determined as one of the 16 major national projects according to National Guideline on Medium-and Long-Term Program for Science and Technology Development (2006-2020) released in 2006, and the research and manufacture centre was sited in Shanghai. Settling down in Shanghai, large aircraft project will bring historical opportunity of realizing Leapfrog Development in civil aviation industry in Shanghai. The project will have positive and profound influences on changing the way of economic development, realizing economic restructuring, driving industry upgrading, and promoting progress of science and technology in Shanghai. This thesis reviews development history of civil aviation industry in Shanghai, analyzes development trend of civil aviation market both at home and abroad, then researches development characteristics of civil aviation industry from cross-theoretical perspective based on the theory of economies of scale, economies of scope, value chain, and industrial agglomeration, and deduces duopoly game between aviation manufacture oligarchies in terms of output and price according to Cournot model and Stackelberg model. This thesis also detailed analyzes the constitution and structure of civil aviation industry chain according to industry chain theory. Based on the analysis method of Cournot model, the thesis establishes an industrial chain model with multi-oligarchies downstream and multi-suppliers upstream, then researches a dynamic game for determining integration production or non-integration production between upstream and downstream, and analyzes the market structure of upstream and downstream which can exert an influence on the selective decision of vertical governance pattern. Exemplified by large aircraft, this thesis analyzes the reason of choosing non-integration production pattern and international division of labor, explains why our country adopt"main manufacturer-supplier"pattern to develop our own large aircraft, then renders the chart of industry chain of large aircraft in Shanghai. The thesis does a detailed empirical research on two large cradles of aviation industrial agglomeration in world, Seattle aviation city in America and Toulouse aviation valley in France, and makes a deep analysis on agglomeration and development of local aviation industry from perspectives of leading role of main manufacturer, agglomeration of subcontractors, relevant industrial support, talent and educational support, and construction of industry chain. From four dimensions of politics, economy, social culture and technology, the thesis analyzes macro environment of civil aviation industry in Shanghai by using PEST analytical framework. By using SWOT analytical framework, the thesis does a detailed research on strength, weakness, opportunity and threat of industrial development, and structures SWOT matrix of civil aviation industry in Shanghai. According to present situation of basic ability and supporting ability, this thesis researches development goals and focus, and industrial layout. Finally, in terms of perfecting advance mechanism, perfecting plan and layout, supporting company's innovation, promoting industrial agglomeration, combining of politics, industry, education, and research, supplying financial support, the thesis renders advices of policies. |
