Dynamic Evolution And Prediction Of Land Use Structure In Zhangye City

This paper, based on the changing data of land utilization in Zhangye city from the 1999-2009,makes quantitative analysis on dynamic evolution of land use structure in Zhangye city by the information entropy, the space Lorenz curve, Gini coefficient and GM (1, 1) model analysis method. It also predicts information entropy, Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient from 2010 and 2020.The findings indicate that:⑴Analyzed on the current land use structure, the total land area in zhangye is 3943653.85 hm2, there are 2734010.85hm2 farmland areas which take up 69.33% of the total land area, and the construction land use acreage is 50780.23hm2 which take up 1.29% of the total land area, The unused land area is 1158862.77hm2 which take up 29.39% of the total land area. The city belongs to the typical agricultural and pastoral areas.⑵Analyzed from the time variation of land use structure, the information entropy of land use structure in zhangye is constantly changing, and experienced four obvious stages: the faster growth stage before 2000, steady growth stage from 2000-2002, the rapid growth stage from 2002-2004 and the slow growth stage in 2004-2009, which show such dynamic process as "adjustment-steady-readjustments-steady again" among of it, the percentage of discretion of the land use types such as grassland, unused land, forest land such as is the main factor influencing information entropy changes of land use structure in zhangye.⑶Analyzed from the space variation of land use structure, on the whole, the land use structure in zhangye such as cultivated land, garden plot, other agricultural land, water conservancy facilities and the unused land distribute slowly from equable direction, however, the distribution is not balanced totally; the dispersion degree of the distribution in woodland, residential area, industrial land and traffic land increase gradually, the spatial changes of land grass land were little. But it also appears to signs of unbalanced development.⑷By predictive analysis on the land use structure change in trend: the distribution of agricultural land, grassland is still very average, cultivated land, other agricultural land area of different counties in zhangye is evenly distributed. the distribution of garden plot and woodland in counties show uneven trend. The distribution of water conservancy facilities area in Construction land tend to balance in different counties in zhangye ,the distribution of residential area, independent industrial land and traffic land further tends to be uneven; the distribution of Unused land is uniform, however, shows the uneven trend.