Risk Evaluation Research Of BOT Project In Early Stage

Since the 21st century, although developing rapidly, the domestic infrastructure still lags far behind the need of national economic development. The major reason of the lagging is the contradiction between fund shortage and construction requirement. Depending only on government finance cannot satisfy the need, while issuing treasury bonds will increase the risk and debt pressure of government. Under such circumstances, BOT financing model has become the main way to resolve this contradiction, because currently the private enterprises have ample capital, advanced management mode and abundant management experience.However, due to the features of BOT projects, which include huge investment, long duration, complex structure, widely involving, and complicated interests relationship, make BOT projects face a number of uncertain factors, and a high risk. These factors with risk may affect the implementation of the project. Therefore, the risk management of BOT projects will determine the success of the project. And the early stage of the project work is an important period in the whole risk management, as with the project processing, uncertain factors are becoming less and less, and the inadequate work on estimate of risk or assessment in the early stage of the project will easily leads to expose plenty of problems during construction phase or the operational phase of the project, and even leads to a high likelihood of failure. As a result, the quality of risk management work in the early stage of BOT project will effect directly the realization of the project's goal.Firstly, the study systematically collects and analyses the domestic and foreign papers about BOT financing mode. And using risk management theory, combined with expert interviews, this thesis distinguishes the risk in early stage of BOT project and summarizes 4 major categories of risk factors and 32 specific risk factors, from dozens of risk factors, thus design a set of forms with rating scale using in early stage of BOT project risk assessment system. Secondly, after a small range of pre-survey, we made some modification, and then it becomes the final formal survey questionnaire. Thirdly, based on the data collecting from in a formal investigation, the study tests the reliability and validity of the questionnaire via SPSS 13.0, this set of data has been taken into element analysis and obtains the principal element for each of the main categories of risk factors, and builds a nearly complete index system for risk evaluation in the early stage of BOT project. Finally, combing with this index system, the study uses the Grey Hierarchy Method to evaluate the risk of a practical case of a BOT project. The rationality of this index system will be testified through the comparison and contrast between the evaluation result and practical situation. This study is the supplement to the currently existing theory about the risk management of BOT project, providing reference evident for the investors when they participating in making decisions of BOT project. It also can strengthen the risk management awareness for investors when they involve in BOT projects.