Study On The Effect Of Bank Credit On Real Estate Bubbles

In recent years the real estate price shows rising trend. In 2008, the real estate market got the influence from the global financial crisis. But house prices are subsequently fast increase in 2010, which increased by 12.8% in April on year-on-year basis. Real estate has a long industrial chain and its leading role is obvious. There is a intimate connection between real estate industry and banking industry. With the rapid development of China's real estate, real estate loan income has become an important component of bank income. The real estate loans are regarded as good loans, and banks increase strength on the support to real estate loans. With the development of real estate industry, the scale of real estate credit is increasing. While house prices are increasing constantly, whether there are the real estate bubbles, and whether bank credit is a catalytic role in the growth of real estate prices. This article will be measure the real estate bubbles, and the effect of the bank credit to the real estate bubbles.This article is organized as follows:The first part: the real estate bubble formation mechanism was described in the definition and then discusses the real estate bubble of the transmission mechanism, and the real estate bubble measurement methods are introduced.The second part: research the relationship of bank credit and the real estate bubble. Carey PW model by model and we know that the expansion of bank credit and loans will push the price undervalued the formation of the real estate bubble, and the bank credit expansion will affect the real estate market, both supply and demand is expected to affect the real estate prices. Then discusses the real estate bubble burst will trigger once the bank risk.The third part based on our real estate market, a large number of data collection based on the detection of the existence of the real estate bubble. First of all categories of indicators through demand and supply categories of indicators and categories of indicators of credit bubble of existence, and then measure in order to fully integrated real estate bubble in China, established a comprehensive index, and the existence of the real estate bubble to further determine the analysis.The fourth part: analysis of bank credit to the real estate bubble formation, first of all to the real estate development loans and individual housing mortgage loans in terms of both quantitative analysis of the bank real estate credit-fueled real estate prices, easy to produce the real estate bubble;then , model building, through the cointegration test and impulse response analysis and reasoning of the bank credit expansion on the real estate industry is the reason real estate prices, bank loans, the more the more powerful real estate prices, bank real estate credit will be real estate prices have a positive impact, the impact of a certain time lag, and the effect is long-term.PartⅤ, in view of real estate and banking situation, based on the research, proposed curb real estate prices rose too, to prevent the risks of banks countermeasures.The innovation of this paper in the following areas:1) through large amounts of data to establish a comprehensive index, measure of the real estate bubble.2) by setting up VAR model, demonstrated expansion of the scale of bank credit on real estate industry is the reason that real estate prices rose.