Research In Theory And Estimating Means Of Real Estate Bubbles

Real estate is one of the most fundamental means of subsistence, what's more, it's an important norm to measure one country's economic standards and people's living standards. Property bubble is a phenomenon that occurs in a country which has insufficient lands to the people. It will bring serious result to economic and society if it occurs. So it is very important to guard and keep away from property bubbleOur country's real estate industry is in the stage of rapid development, but at the same time, there are many problems, such as, too expensive price, illogical frame, too quickly increasing of investment and so on. As a result, many people argue if there are bubbles in the real estate market of china. Shanghai, which is the loco of Chinese economic, becomes the focus of this argument.On these conditions, the paper makes the theory research firstly, then, analyzes the station of the real estate in Shanghai from the year 2003 to 2005, by using the up-to-date status and employing the qualitative and quantitative analysis methods.Thereinto, this paper firstly start with the radical theory in property price, by expounding mutual relation between property price and supply, demand, and anticipation; analyzing the affiliation among real estate price, rent and price of land, which forms the matting for nether research; Secondly, analyzes the cause, specific mechanism and the harm of the bubbles economy from the basic theory of the bubbles economy by the standardization research methods; On the basic of qualitative analyses, it leads quantitative methods, such as marketing amending , income reverting and so on; And then, an instance, the real estate market of Shanghai, is demonstrated with use the method of income reverting to count the BEM(bubble estimate modulus), and analyzes the BEM from different aspects, subsequently, educe there is bubble trend in the real estate market of Shanghai. Finally, this paper proposes a series of the precaution measures against the real estate bubbles.I sincerely hope this paper can give us enough attention to real estate bubbles and have a certain reference to the formulation of our country's real-estate policy...