Study On Financial Risks In The Chinese Real-estate Economy

Real estate industry is an important industry for the national economy. It has a close relation with economic development and people's production and living, and play an important role in developmenting economics and stimulating consumption. Real estate industry has already been our economic development's Barometer.With continued heating up in recent years, the real estate market has become China's largest economic and financial risks. In China, real estate industry investment is about 1/4 of the investment in the fixed assets, and real estate-related loans accounted for 1/3 of the bank's total loans. At present, China's real estate mortgage occupy a large proportion of the assets of commercial banks. This is also one of the major way of financing. So, China's real estate market is dependent on commercial banks on a high degree. The increasing housing vacancy rates, poor housing and funds shortage in are all the potential risks of China's real estate industry. Thus, making a study on the market risks of China's real estate industry at this stage has a great significance and value in both the real estate market and the entire country's macroeconomics.At first in this paper, combining with the real estate market macro data, qualitative risk to China's real estate market analysis and evaluation, I analyze and evaluate the risks of China's real estate industry qualitatively and select the representative and illustrative indicators to reflect the current real estate market potential risks. Drawing previous studies, combined with the current market environment, national housing climate index, the amount of real estate investment, real estate sources of funds, real estate sales status and the ratio of the relative housing prices and people earnings have been selected to analyze, there is a bubble in the present real estate market, the capital flow and security of real estate enterprises.The second part is to certificate the harmony of the real estate market and the macroeconomic, using nonstational time series and the cointegration analysis. Selecting average selling prices of commercial housing and GDP, household consumption level and the coordination of interest rate, using unit root test and cointegration test, this part analyses the coordination of property prices and macroeconomic and researches China's real estate market risks. At present, China's real estate price is in line with China's rapid economic growth and did not appear seriously out of the price level of economic development and the resident abilities to pay. Overall, the macro-economic growth can explain the growth of China's housing prices, housing price growth is supported by macroeconomic fundamentals. However, some cities housing prices rose abnormally, which is worthy of our attention. It is clear that the prices to some extent aside from the track of economic-socio coordination development relatively. Then, from the perspective of real estate financing, real estate as a capital-intensive industry, their development needs and support the involvement of the financial system. By the international financial crisis, China's housing market has begun to fall into a depressed state. With the downturn in the real estate market, real estate companies have become in more and poorer survival environment and have a poor funding chain tension. This part of the study analyzes the potential financial risks of China's real estate industry from the funds of the security chain of real estate companies. In response to financial crisis and combining with the government's policy, using autoregressive moving average season model, this part analyzes the chain of real estate funds business of the returning situation and security issues from two sides. All of the above is used to analyze the potential financial risks of China's real estate, which has signification on practice.Finally, according to the above analysis, financial risks for the real estate corresponding preventive measures proposed:the establishment of a sound risk evaluation system for real estate finance, real estate credit markets improve information disclosure system, the development of multi-level real estate finance market spread financial risk, enhance public financial risk awareness education as the focus of the current regulation.