| Since the market-oriented reform of China's housing management system,the securities market and the real estate market have shown a clear linkage relationship,and the linkage between the stock market and the real estate market is the most significant.According to the overall fluctuations of China's commercial housing prices and stock price indices between 1998 and 2017,it can be seen that there is a close relationship between real estate market prices and stock market prices.There is a huge bubble in China's real estate market.Real estate is increasingly divorced from its original residential functions and has become a tool for speculation.Many professionals predict that China's real estate bubble will burst in the near future.Once China's real estate market bubble burst,and the securities market,it will have a huge impact on the economy.At the same time,there is also a bubble in China's securities market.If the bubble burst in the securities market may also endanger the real estate market,it will trigger an economic crisis.Therefore,in the current era background,studying the relationship between the securities market and the real estate market is of great significance for preventing economic risks and maintaining the stable and healthy development of China's economy.The impact of the wealth effect on real estate and the stock market and the credit-price effect have the same impact on both,giving them a two-way positive impact.Changes in the level of citizens'personal wealth will be subject to fluctuations in stock prices,which will further affect the real estate market,which will eventually lead to significant fluctuations in the prices of commercial housing.At the same time,under the influence of rising stock prices,the public is expected to expand its consumption in the future.The relationship between the asset conversion effect and the substitution effect can reflect the level of association real estate and the stock market are linked in many ways,so a certain negative impact mechanism.The substitution effect refers to the two kinds of investment assets that can replace each other in stock and real estate,and the difference in yield as an alternative asset.After obtaining high profits in the stock market,the possibility of stock assets replacing real estate is greater.If the real estate income is relatively high,then the possibility of real estate replacing stock assets is greater.In this regard,the overall performance of the two markets can be further understood as a"seesaw"phenomenon.This paper studies the stock market(including stocks,bonds,and futures markets)by unit root test,cointegration test,SVAR model analysis,impulse response function-analysis and Granger causality test for monthly time series data from 2006 to 2017.In relation to the volatility of the real estate market,representative indicators are used in the empirical analysis:the Shanghai Composite Index,the China Bond Index,the National Futures Volume,the National Housing Climate Index,and the National Real Estate Sales Area.The research results show that there is a cointegration relationship between the Shanghai Composite Index and the national housing prosperity index and real estate sales area,while the China Bond Index and futures trading volume have a cointegration relationship with the real estate sales area;the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index Growth Rate and the China Bond Index The growth rate is the Granger reason for the growth rate of the national housing economy index.The futures volume growth rate and the real estate sales area growth rate are each other's Granger reasons.The real estate sales area growth rate is the growth rate of the China Bond Index.In this regard,it is hoped that the Chinese government will fully consider the linkage between the stock,bond,futures and real estate markets and the stock market when implementing macro-control economic policies,and fully consider the policy time lag to ensure the steady and healthy development of China's economy. |
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