Simulation Research On The Diffusion Of New Energy Vehicles In The Perspective Of Complex Adaptive Systems

With the intensification of global environmental pollution and energy crisis, to promote new energy vehicles has become an inevitable trend. As the current price of new energy vehicles is very expensive, it is considered that technological learning is an important power which can bring a successful promotion of new energy vehicles. But the relationship between the diffusion of new energy vehicles and the construction of the corresponding fuel-filling stations is just a "chicken and egg" problem, which actually makes technological learning of new energy vehicles extremely difficult to start spontaneously. Therefore, in order to make the diffusion successful, it is necessary for government to establish some demonstration projects as seeds of technological learning. However, due to financial budget constraint, government can't build widespread and intensive fuel-filling stations immediately. Thus, how to optimize the initial spatial distribution of fuel-filling stations becomes a realistic problem for promoting new energy vehicles.For this situation, in the perspective of complex adaptive systems (CAS), this study firstly builds a diffusion model of new energy vehicles which combines agent based modeling (ABM) with geographic information system (GIS), and puts forward a technological implementation method to integrate ABM and GIS. Then, according to the proposed model and the suggested method, the study develops a simulation platform integrating both ABM and GIS which is also a kind of visual decision support system rudiment. Thus, the simulation platform can be used as a basis to discuss the question of how to optimize the initial spatial distribution of fuel-filling stations. Finally, the study taking Shanghai as an example analyzes the influencing factors of the diffusion of new energy vehicles by the simulation platform, and in turn makes some policy suggestions based on the analysis, so as to provide government with valuable evidences for its decision-making of the promotion of new energy vehicles.