The Design And Implementation Of The Harbin Railway Bureau Security Analysis And Forecast Systems

Since the running speed increased for the sixth time at the large scale for China Railwayin2007, the private line construction for the railway transport of passengers has fully beendeveloped. The Beijing-Tianjin, Wuhan-Guangzhou and Shanghai-Hangzhou intercityhigh-speed railways formally operated in2008,2009and on26th October2010respectively,representing that the China Railway has been in the high speed age. How to establish a set ofsecurity forecasting models is an important task in railway reformation to satisfy wants ofhigh-speed railway development, which can adapt to the modern railway management,prevent and control railway traffic accidents in advance. As the first established railroadbureau since1949, the Harbin Railway Bureau has the operating mileage of6800km,8%ofthe total road mileage, and two hundred and ten thousand employees. Therefore, to ensuresecurity transportation is the most importance thing of the Harbin Railway Bureau currently.In recent years, a large quantities of the relatively mature and relatively reliable securitycheck and security monitoring techniques, equipments and information systems wereconstructed and utilized in application of science and technology for the railroad specializedsystems of all levels, which played the very good role in the railway security transportation.But most of these systems were of relative independence and shared no information betweeneach other leading to the limited utility values. So these systems can't assess and forecast therailway security transportation as a whole. Therefore, in this paper, the traffic accident causesof the Harbin Railway Bureau are generally analyzed and the security risk analysis indexsystems are established by using the software engineering and the system engineering theoryand method. The railway security transportation systemic assessment models, suitable for theHarbin Railway Bureau, are established with the gray forecasting technique in the grey system theory. These models are applied to assess and forecast the Harbin Railway Bureausecurity situations at present and thus the corresponding control countermeasures are putforward. Starting with the railway security transportation influencing factors, including thepersonnel, equipment and management factors, the security risk analysis and forecastingmanagement information systems are established to satisfy wants of the current railroadsecurity management, in combination with the security control management science, thesecurity decision theory and the information technology.Firstly, development of the domestic and foreign railroad security management, thesecurity analysis and early-warning systems in the various fields as well as the domesticrailroad security early-warning mechanism are summarized. The security risk analysis theoryand the security early-warning theory are generalized.Next, the security risk analysis indexes are put forward at the based on the historicalaccident cases of the Harbin Railway Bureau for many years, the security risk analysis indexsystems suitable for the Harbin Railway Bureau are established and the variouscorresponding index weights are calculated by using the analytic hierarchy process. At thesame time, the railroad security situations at present are quantitatively evaluated with thesynthetic evaluation methods and the Harbin Railway Bureau security conditions areforecasted with the gray forecasting techniques, which could provide data supports formaking decisions.Finally, the Harbin Railway Bureau security risk analysis and early-warning systems aredeveloped and implemented by analyzing system requirements, operation flows and dataflows and designing overall construction and databases.