Research On The Robustness Evaluation Methodology & Analysis Of Military Communication Network Effectiveness

Military communication network efficiency (MCNE) evaluation conclusions are usually seemed as the basic reference for the decision-making of communication alternatives optimization. As the increasing complexity and uncertainty of the modern information warfare,the higher reliability requirements are put forth to demonstrate and develop the MCNE and the evaluation process where there are many uncertain factors, however. It may mislead the decision making on the optimization results is very high.Based on the state-of-the-art of the robustness evaluation, we figure out the key factors in current reduction of MCNE risks, analyze the requirement of multi-attributes, multi-alternatives and multi-methods in this system, put forward the idea of robustness evaluation analysis to gain the support of reliable decision-making, and then build the MCNE robustness evaluation analysis framework. The contents are as follows:(1) According to the requirement of MCNE and the state-of-the-art, we build a mathematical model comprised of simulation data, multi-experts experience data and ground measured data, which makes the multi-sources data expression normative. Based on Monte Carlo simulation and Beta distribute model, we put forward the concept of probability of best (PoB), and built the robustness simulation analysis model for measuring evaluation risks. This model made the optimization outcome more credible by using the same multi-attribute decision–making method (MADM).(2) Based on the cloud model, we build a model to analyze the MADM methods'robustness and put forward the solved arithmetic. It provides the academic and simulation support for choosing proper MADM method in certain environment.(3) Think about the simulation-evaluation experimentation under the complain application of electron information system for one digital division network system. We investigate the problem of how to reach the credible optimization to support robustness decision-making by three points of view. They are: robustness of evaluation data, robustness of calculated results by MADM and robustness analysis of MADMs. The validate results of the case indicated that the methods do reduce the risk and get stable evaluation results. All show that the evaluation process is credible.The contributions of this paper enrich the methods of SE and SOS evaluation; improve the capability of decision-making support for the MCNE robustness evaluation demonstration. Therefore it has considerable both theoretical and practical significance.