Study On The Prediction Model Of Apple Tree Canker

Apples are important economic crops, and apple tree canker not only affect and restrict the production of apples, but also has a great impact on the quality of apples. The traditional apple canker forecast is based on the experience of farmers and experts on the basis of subjective。In order to establish a more scientific and effective the prediction model of prevalence of apple canker disease for better guiding the farmers.This paper, firstly, by analysis mainly factors influencing apple canker disease based on Principal Component Analysis(PCA),establishing the prediction model of Error Back Proragation(BP)neural network and the prediction model of Wavelet Neural Network(WNN), according to the first step.so as to complete the prediction model of apple tree canker.The mainly research in this paper are the following:(1) BP prediction model. Firstly, input data of the prediction model is treatmented, then the model training and prediction, finally, to verify the prediction accuracy by experiments. Affecting factors of Apple Tree Canker are analyzed and summarized, the extracted main factors by using PCA, as the inputs of the BP prediction model, the morbidity levels of the apple tree canker are used as the outputs. The model show that the prediction accuracy is good.(2)WNN prediction model. The construction of Compaction and Decomposition wavelet neural network are analyzed, a wavelet neural network of compaction construction is used in this paper. the extracted main factors by using PCA, as the inputs of the WNN, the hidden layer activation function used Morlet wavelet function, to prediction morbidity levels of the apple tree canker in luochuan county. At last, the prediction WNN model is based on wavelet transform. The model show that the prediction accuracy is better than the BP prediction model.(3)The Model of Apple Tree Canker. This model provide more the information of disease to users. By comparison two different prediction models, users can choose different model for scoemtific and accurate prediction according to different areas,which is an important role in preparation works of prevention disease to local farmmers.