Study On Evolution And Affecting Factors Of Rapeseed Production Distribution In Yangtze Valley

With the rigid increase of population and economic sustainable development, the consumption of per capita edible vegetable oil in China soared year by year. The self-sufficient ratio of edible vegetable oil became inferior and the gap between oil supply and demand gradually expanded which enhanced China's dependence on the international oil market. Rapeseed is one of the most important oil crops in China, which also is the best oil crop to raise self-sufficient ratio. Therefore, further development of rapeseed production has become an important approach for solving mismatches in supply and demand and ensuring safety of China's edible oils supply as well.Yangtze Valley is a major rapeseed producing area of China, its rapeseed production level represents the general level of China's production level in a certain extent and decides the supply of edible vegetable oil. Studying on the evolution of rapeseed allocation and affecting factors has apparent practical significance. It not only helps to give full play to comparative advantage of rapeseed production of Yangtze Valley, and release the tension between edible oil supply and demand, but also could provide important references to the development of rapeseed production of China. This research will go mainly from the two aspects:Firstly, the research progress on rapeseed production, allocation of agriculture, the theory of comparative advantage and spatial economy were reviewed, and then the content and method of this research were presented.Secondly, based on the economical data of rapeseed from 1978 to 2008, the current situation and evolution on the temporal sequence of rapeseed production distribution was discussed, and then the comparative advantage of each province with the comprehensive comparative advantage coefficient was determined. After that, the spatial correlation and agglomeration of rapeseed yields with Moran's I was analyzed. The results of the study showed that the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River had become the main producing area of rapeseed; as a whole, the comparative advantage played relatively balanced and some provinces had enormous potential to develop rapeseed production. The study also found that the levels of per unit area yield are very different across different provinces.Thirdly, the potential factors which may affect the rapeseed production of Yangtze Valley were analyzed, and then the details of the effects based on the model of spatial econometrics were discussed. It demonstrated that the affecting factors not only influenced the rapeseed production in this district, but also the neighboring districts. Among the factors, the economic benefits comparison results of rapeseed to wheat played the most important role, then per capita arable land and scientific researchers in turn.At last, some suggestions for the development of rapeseed production in Yangtze Valley were provided, which based on the distribution of current rapeseed production and the main affecting factors.