| To protect the effective supply of oilseeds is China must adhere to the bottom line of national food security.Oil security is an important part of food and oil security,and ensuring effective supply of oilseeds is the bottom line of national food security that China must adhere to.However,from 2000 to 2020,the self-sufficiency rate of oilseeds in China decreased from 81.0% to 25.1%,especially since the outbreak of the global new crown epidemic,the supply and demand of oilseeds have been tight,and the international market has led to a continuous increase in domestic edible vegetable oil market prices through the price transmission mechanism,which has triggered the problem of oilseed supply security.Rapeseed is the oilseed crop with the largest planting area and the most widely distributed planting area in China and the main source of edible vegetable oil,with a sown area of 6.765 million ha in 2020,accounting for 51.5% of the total area of oilseed crops in the country;at the same time,rapeseed is also the oilseed crop with the highest oil production efficiency,with a total output of 14.049 million tons of rapeseed in the same year,accounting for 39.2% of the total output of oilseed crops;in addition,winter rapeseed is the only winter oilseed crop in China,and at this stage,with more than 10 million ha of idle winter fields,the rapeseed industry has a huge production potential to be tapped.Therefore,safeguarding and stabilizing the benign and effective supply of rapeseed has become an important foundation for ensuring domestic edible oil security;assessing the spatial and temporal dynamics of rapeseed is the basis for rational allocation of production resources and safeguarding oil security in China.This study is based on provincial panel data of Chinese rapeseed production from 1980 to2020.Kernel density estimation,standard deviational ellipse,Getis-Ord Gi* and grey dynamic model GM(1,1)to analyze and predict the evolution of spatial and temporal layout of rapeseed production in China.and Moran’s I The spatial Durbin model was constructed based on the squared inverse distance weight matrix,and the spatial spillover effect was explored using policy as the entry point.The conclusions are as follows.Through the measurement of the spatial layout of rapeseed production,we found that:(1)China’s rape production scale index as a whole is in a fluctuating upward trend,and high value areas and low value areas exist at the same time,and the gap between the two is expanding over time.(2)The spatial distribution pattern of rapeseed production scale index shows an east-west pattern,and the migration path of the center of gravity shows a trend of "southeast-northwestsouthwest",mainly showing a trend of migration to the southwest in the past 20 years.(3)The dispersion of the cold spot area in the north decreases,and the hot spot area in the south migrates to the southwest,that is,the hot spot area of rapeseed cultivation is more concentrated in the upper and middle Yangtze River basin,and the overall migration trend is consistent with the migration of the center of gravity of rapeseed production.(4)In the past decade,the spatial distribution of rapeseed production layout evolution showed a spatial distribution trend of eastward decrease,westward expansion and southward shift.The prediction results show that the spatial distribution pattern of Chinese rapeseed in the next five years will continue to continue the above evolutionary pattern.The analysis of the spatial effects of policy factors on the evolution of the spatial layout of rapeseed production found that(1)the production scale index of rapeseed planted area in China showed a significant positive spatial spillover effect.(2)The seed subsidy policy of rapeseed is positively correlated with the increase of production scale level of rapeseed in this province and the indirect effect shows that the seed subsidy policy of rapeseed can promote the increase of production scale index of adjacent provinces and regions at the level of 1% through policy spillover.The temporary storage policy of rapeseed directly affects the reduction of rape production scale index in this province and region at 1% level.(3)The effect of policy-driven factors on the layout of rapeseed production in winter rapeseed areas is more significant,and the effect on northern spring rapeseed areas is weaker.(4)When the two policies are implemented in a certain area at the same time,the effect of the two policies on the rapeseed production scale is opposite,and the opposite effect offsets each other,so the influence of the policy interaction term on the rapeseed production scale index in this area is not significant.Finally,this study proposes the following policy recommendations:(1)According to the spatial and temporal change characteristics of China’s rapeseed production layout and development trend prediction,increase policy support for rapeseed cultivation hotspot areas and rapeseed advantageous development areas,stimulate farmers in advantageous areas to operate on a large scale,give full play to the scale advantage of rapeseed cultivation advantageous areas,and guarantee their production supply.(2)The formulation of rapeseed support policies should not only ensure the area and yield,but also focus on the optimization of production layout and spatial resource allocation.(3)Encourage farmers in winter rapeseed producing areas to make full use of winter idle fields for rapeseed cultivation.(4)Increase the research and development of varieties and cultivate resistant rapeseed varieties to adapt to variable climate or even extreme climate. |
PDF Full Text Request