The Application Of Gray System Prediction Theory In The Construction Project Cost

Based on the old information, present information and non-deterministic information, grey forecast, as a grey model (GM), was established to forecast the change-tendency of the system, which provides the foundation for layout and decision.This paper studied the grey theoretical application in the project cost forecast to find the more reasonable and faster forecast method. Depending on the above theory, combining the historical datum and considering the relationship among the parts of project cost, GM(1,N) was established to forecast the project cost. The engineering example was provided to expound the process of the forecast.The major work of this paper is concentrated in the following aspects: (1) Focused on the frame of the project cost, the paper analyzed the structural mode, structural requirement and calculation formula of the project forecast in detail firstly. Then through the contrast between the domestic and international project cost theory, the factors that make the variance of the project cost were obtained and the discussion on the forecast of various cost was given.(2) Based on the forecast theory and forecast method, an actual example was given to explain the calculation method and the notice items.(3) Used the grey forecast theory, a forecast example was given to open out the difference among the GM (1,N), GM(1,1) and the systemic forecast method.(4) According to the grey forecast theory, the research on the project cost forecast material of Xi'an was given. The results of the example indicate that the forecast method is effective.