Studies On Traffic Safety Risk Assessment Of Mountain Highway

Mountain highways are the high potential area of traffic accidents, especially the major traffic accidents, due to the adverse terrain and geological conditions. While the most of the research on traffic safety of mountain highways focus on estimating the accident black spots after accident happened, which has significant lag. In this dissertation, the relationship between combinations of different states for various road conditions and road environment is revealed, the procedures and methods for traffic safety risk assessment of mountain highway is obtains, all based on the research accomplishment of related literature and traffic accident statistics data, thereby, change the after accident evaluation into beforehand accident prediction. Thus it's significantly important not only to improve the current status traffic safety of mountain highway, but to instruct the construction of the new mountain road.First and foremost, risk assessment is the vital prophase of risk management, providing effective basis for the risk control. The core of risk assessment is to determine the consequences and probability of possible damage, including risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation.Secondly, by summarizing the results of theoretical studies, and taking into account the feasibility and traffic data collection as well as the actual situation of accident statistics data, the accident-related road conditions and road environment factors is identified in the part of traffic safety risk identification of mountain highway.Thirdly, by using AHP method, combined with analysis of theory and accident statistics data, the data of road conditions and road environment is converted into digital text. So the probability of different traffic accidents levels under different states of various road conditions and road environment can be predicted with the help of BP neural network in the part of traffic safety risk estimation of mountain highway.Ultimately, the advantages and disadvantages of risk classification methods are compared, and both the dynamic division of traffic safety risk level and risk map for mountain highway are achieved using MAPINFO software in the part of traffic safety risk evaluation of mountain highway.