Earthquake Casualties Risk Prediction And Control

The field of earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation research priorities is one of the topics over the years in terms of urban earthquake disaster simulation model studies have achieved fruitful results. An earthquake which is devastating and unpredictable, is caused to a great threat to human survival in the natural phenomenon, instantly cause great damage to society, and the most painful loss is loss of life. The number of casualties is vary widely different for any earthquake. If casualties can be accurately predicted, it is very important for shockproof and emergency. This paper studies the risk factors of earthquake, predictes casualties and further control to reduce casualties. That one reasonable estimate about damage loss is very important to improve risk management. The earthquake preparedness and post-earthquake emergency are implementation of an effective means of risk control.Firstly ,the paper start for identify casualties risk factors of the earthquake ,such as earthquake intensity, original time of earthquake, Population density in seismic disaster area, and compensation of building damage and so on, Second investigate present situation at home and abroad, analysis of seismic casualty risk, then collection data of disaster information inrecent 20 years about destructive earthquake, and use linear regression analysis to building the Rapid Evaluation Model by main factors of the casualties, which should be validate the model until it is available for earthquake early warning system.Third, divide the date into three class up to earthquake magnitude in the following this paper discussing the risk measures. To reduce casualties, makes corresponding countermeasures like reasonable rational of materials, emergency evacuation or Improve the seismic fortification. Last the model was applied in Fujian Province earthquake disaster of rapid assessment system,like simulating of an earthquake, Predicting the risk of loss of casualties and developing appropriate emergency needs.