A Kind Of Combinatong Forecasting Method Based On IOWA Operators And Its Application To The Number Of Civilian Cars In Sichuan

Forecast on the total number of civilian cars is the basis of transportation directions and managements. It is of important significance to research on the development trend of the civilian cars number, For guiding the development of the automotive industry and other tertiary industry,For making the construction plan and management of road traffic and formulating measures of environmental protection controlling the emissions of carbon.Because a single model cannot totally reflect the changing rules and information of car number,combination forecasting method has been a new directing of developing research.The methods commonly used for combination forecast use the fixed weight coefficients to the single forecast models.However,to every single model, it shows differenettly at different time points, sometimes it is accurate,sometimes not.Because the forecast precision is different at various times.the weight coefficients of single forecasts models should be variable, an induced ordered weighted averaging (IOWA) operator is introduced in this thesis, then the new combined forecasting model based on induced ordered weighted averaging operator is proposed.It is a kind of variant weights combination forecasting model,can reduce the instabilities of errors at various times.This thesis first adopt universally three kinds unitary forecasts model at present. Applying Grey Forecasting Model GM (1,1),Time Teries Tnalyze and Linear Regres sion Analyze carry out a forecast on the number of civilian cars in Sichuan.Then,the relative error was calculated in every single model,we analyze and compare the merits and objections of single forecast models.On this basis, an induced ordered weighted averaging (IOWA) operator is introduced in this thesie, and its some properties are discussed. Then the new combined forecasting model based on induced ordered weighted averaging operator is proposed and a mathematical programming model calculates the IOWA weights. Comparing with other forecasting models.it reflect that this model has high reliability and practicability, and it can give a lot of help in the car and transportation industry.