Research And Application On The Model Of Ship's Typoon Defence Forecasting Combination

Accurate prediction of typhoon is an important guarantee for making economical and safe decision to defense typhoon, but completely accurate prediction of typhoon is not possible to get as a result of the current oretical and technical limitations. Every time before the landing of typhoon, all forecasting stations will issue typhoon information. Facing the forecasting information from various forecasting stations, how to select or synthesize a highly accurate and stable forecasting information is an important issue in the field of ship's typhoon defence decision. This has important practical significance for ensuring that the ship's typhoon defence desion is effective and reducing average incident.The main object of this paper is focused on forecasting combination of ship's typhoon defence. First, analyzes the problems of ship's typhoon defence and solution and states the current status of the forecasting combination research. Then, under the guidance of the theory in the forecasting combination, detailedly analyzes the principle of data collection and combination of typhoon wind speed, air pressure, track, the ship's typhoon defence forecasting combination model is established. In this model, when combinating the typhoon air pressure, wind speed, this paper introduces the gray relation analysis method to evaluate forecasting ability of each station, adopts the plus weight recursive combination method to determine the weight, and establishes the typhoon air pressure, wind speed forecasting combination model, when combinating the typhoon track, this article synthetically consideres the direction error and distance error, and applies fuzzy neartude to the evaluation, determines the weight by normalizing the value,the typhoon track forecasting combination model is established. Then, the solution process is programmed based on MATLAB. Finally, collectes data from the Central Station, the Hong Kong Station, the Japanese station and these data is used in case study. The results show that the model has obvious advantages and it can provide reference for ship's typhoon defence decision!...