Phenological Response Of Typical Plants At High Latitudes, Widely Distributed Species Prunus Persica And Prunus Dav Idina To Climate Change In China

Phenological phenomenon is an important indicator of climate and nature environment changes. Nature phenological record could provide the most direct and effective evidence of global environment changes. Comprehensive analysis of historical phenological and climate data can be used to reveal climate change in a long time and biological response to environmental changes. Plant phenology, as a comprehensive response index, can indicate climate change sensitively. With deepening in global change researches, plant phenology response to climate change has become a hot spot in the global change and phenology research field.Recently many researchers have studied the response of plant phenology to climate change in different regions in China, but the territorial scope of these studies is not wide enough overall, and the plant species of these studies are also very limited. Climate change has inhomogeneity in different regions in the world, i.e. big changes occurred in some regions whereas little changes occurred in other regions. Different plant species respond to climate change in different ways, and their drive mechanisms are various too. Some plants are sensitive to climate change whereas other plants are not. Plant phenology at high latitudes in the northern hemisphere response most sensitively to temperature change. While studies on plant phenology at middle and high latitudes especially studies on its response to global climate change are still lack of systematic research. In addition, for some plant species which are widely spread in China, phenophase of these plant species variations in geographical space and its response to climate change are also lack of deep discussion. Study on response of plant phenology in middle and high latitudes and widely spread plant species to climate change may help understanding of response features of different plant phenology to climate change in different climate conditions, and driving mechanism of climate change to phonological change hence help with provision of scientific basis for evaluation of ecological impacts of climate change for regional or even larger spatial scale. Based on meteorological data of Harbin in 1951-2008 and observation data of plant phenology in Heilongjiang Forest Botanical Garden from 1963-2008, with several statistical and mathematical simulation being used to analyze the changing characteristics of climate, changing characteristics of plant phenology and response of plant phenology to climate change in study region, and studying on the Prunus persica and Prunus davidina first flowering variation with geographical distribution which extensively distributed in the north and south of China, the main conclusions are as follows:(1) Since 1951 the air temperature of Harbin rises significantly, especially after 1978. Warming of the annual minimum temperature is larger than the annual maximum temperature and annual mean temperature. There are obvious seasonal variations in temperature rise. According to the range of temperature rise in order is winter (0.674℃·10 a^-1), spring (0.578℃·10 a^-1), autumn (0.314℃·10 a^-1) and summer (0.250℃·10 a^-1).There are obvious abrupt points in the average annual mean air temperature and seasonal mean air temperature. Abrupt point of annual mean air temperature in Harbin appeared in 1989-1990, abrupt point of spring mean air temperature appeared in 1978, several abrupt points of summer and fall mean air temperature appeared and abrupt piont of winter mean air temperature appeared in 1990.The lasting days of steadily above 10℃has increased significantly in the past 58 years (3.328 d·10 a^-1, p<0.0001), and it's mainly caused by the first day of steadily above 10℃has advance significantly. In this region, the precipitation variance between years was very large and general showed a slight rising trend. Abrupt point of annual precipitation in Harbin appeared in 1979, and there were no obvious abrupt points in each seasonal.(2) Advance of spring phenophase, delay of autumn phenophase and extend of growing season are the main characteristics of phenophases changes in Harbin from 1963 to 2008. The characters of spring phenological change were consistent with climate change. The spring phenophases begins earlier or later is subject to temperature of spring, especially the mean temperature of current month that spring phenophase begins and previous month has the most significant impact to phenophases. and the phenophese has little correlation with the precipitation. (3) We predict the change of phenophase under the conditions of future climate change, and the results show that:When the mean air temperature rises up by 1°C in February, gymnosperm beginning of bud swelling will advance 2.2-2.6 d. When the mean air temperature rises up by 1°C in spring, buds burst of gymnosperm will advance 5.1-6.2 d and beginning of leaf expansion will advance 2.5-5.6 d. When the mean temperature rises up by 1°C in March, buds burst of broad-leaved arbors will advance 0.8-2.3 d, beginning of leaf expansion will advance 1.7-2.4 d and first flowering will advance 0.8-2.2d. When the mean temperature rises up by 1°C in April, buds burst of shrub will advance 1.7-3.0 d, beginning of leaf expansion will advance 2.8-3.6 d and first flowering will advance 2.2-3.2 d.(4) Under the same context of climate change, gymnosperms, broad-leaved trees and shrubs phenologically response to climate change in different sensitivities, gymnosperms more sensitive to climate change, broad-leaved trees and shrubs less sensitive to climate change. Also there are some differences in phenology of different species responding to climate change. Juglans mandshurica response to climate change is relatively slow.(5) The first flowering of Prunus persica and Prunus davidina vary with latitude, longitude and altitude. On the horizontal distribution, every degree extending to the north, the first flowering of Prunus persica delays 3.850 d, every degree extending to the east, the first flowering of Prunus persica delays 0.670 d, and on the vertical distribution, every 100m altitude increasing, the first flowering of Prunus persica delays 1.229 d. Every degree extending to the north, the first flowering of Prunus davidina delays 3.137 d, and the changes of longitude and altitude have slight impact on the first flowering of Prunus davidina.(6) We predict the change of Prunus persica and Prunus davidina first flowering under the conditions of future climate change, and the simulations show that:When the mean temperature rises 1℃or the mean precipitation increases 10mm in 1-6 months, the first flowering of Prunus persica will advance 2.079d or 2.499 d. There are some differences for the first flowering of Prunus persica in different regions responding to climate change. When the mean temperature of 2-5 months rises 1℃in the north of Qinling-Huai river, the first flowering of Prunus persica will advance 2.410 d. When the mean temperature of 1-4 months rises 1℃in the south of Qinling-Huai river, the first flowering of Prunus persica will advance 3.877 d. When the mean temperature rises 1℃in 1-6 months, the first flowering of Prunus davidina will advance 3.090 d.