The Development Potential Of Fixed-line Telecommunications Research

After many years'reform and reorganization, it has formed six operators to compete mutually in China Telecom industry. The CHINA SATCOM deals in satellite telecommunication business, CHINA TELECOM,CNC and CRC conduct national fixed network telecom business(fixed telephone and related business), CHINA MOBILE and CHINA UNICOM conduct mobile telecommunication business. With communication market opening, the market competition of the operator's is gradually vigorous, Different telecom business can replace easily. With macro economy developing, policy environment improving, the fixed network telecom industry is facing the challenge of cellphone and VOIP replacing traditional telephone business.This paper starts with analyzing the macro environment and use a large number of Econometrics method, predict the revenue of Chinese fixed network telecom industry and the developing potential of each main business. Use of time sequence method to predict the future growth trend of the fixed network telecom industry revenue; Contrasting the fixed telephone development of town and village, Adopting Logistic growth curve Econometrics method to analyze three development stages of Chinese village fixed telephone market; Draw a conclusion that the Chinese village fixed telephone has a huge development potential; and predict the development trend of village fixed network telecom in several years ; Adopting Logistic growth curve method to calculate and analyze Internet business growth stage; while studying Internet development potential, we draw a conclusion that Internet business also have a good growth foreground, and give a quantitative predict of Internet industry development.When researching fixed telecom industry revenue and the Internet business development prospects, the author take the national per capita income and telecom industry fixed assets investment as the main impact factors of the fixed telecom industry revenue, take the number of Internet users and computer effects coverage as major factors in the internet business development. Use econometric methods,analyze quantitatively the relations between revenue and the impact factors. Analyze quantitatively the relations between number of internet clients and the impact factors.Based on quantitative analysis, this paper use the "Boston" business portfolio analysis method in the final to classify the business of fixed telecom operators, and bring some decision-making suggestions to the fixed telecommunications operators.