Research On The Lag Of Fixed Assets Investment To Gross Domestic Product's Growth

Regional economic growth depends on investment,export and consumption,which are also the troika that play a decisive role in regional economic growth.As the main channel of forming social fixed capital,fixed asset investment has irreplaceable importance.How to reasonably plan the investment in fixed assets in order to better stimulate economic development and improve industrial structure is an important issue for governments and enterprises at all levels to face.Theory combined with practical experience shows that,due to its own characteristics,fixed asset investment has a promoting effect on economic growth,but it is often accompanied by a certain lag,and the length of lag is generally affected by the level of regional economic development,differences in regional industrial structure,economic efficiency,etc.And we need to think about,in a stable economic environment,what are the pulling effects of fixed asset investment on GDP growth in each year of the lag period? And in this state,as investors,how should we deal with it? This article will elaborate on the above problems.This paper selects the time series data of Hefei's investment in fixed assets and GDP from 2000 to 2016 as the analysis sample.Under the guidance of econometrics,EVIEWS7.2 software is used as the data analysis tool.Through unit root test and cointegration test on the sample data,it is proved that the sample data has better stability.Through the description and analysis of fixed asset investment and GDP,it is found that fixed asset investment has a strong promoting effect on GDP growth.At the same time,it is also found that there is a certain lag in the pulling effect of fixed asset investment on GDP,and the lag is about 2 years.That is,the promotion effect of fixed asset investment on GDP is not instantaneous,but gradually releases the pulling effect within a certain period of time.Based on the time series data of investment in fixed assets and GDP,this paper establishes a lag regression model to further analyze the promotion effect of investment in fixed assets on GDP growth in the current investment period and each year in the lag period.Regression analysis is carried out on the data by means of the least square method inherent in the software,and the regression analysis is judged to be better by T test,F test and goodness-of-fit value.After making necessary amendments to the model,the following conclusions are drawn: the investment in fixed assets in the current year has different pulling effects on economic growth in each of the current year and the lag period.if theinvestment in fixed assets increases by 1% in the current year,the GDP will increase by0.5136157% in the current year of investment,while in the first year of the lag period,its pulling effect on GDP growth is not significant.in the second year of the lag period,the investment in fixed assets has a new promoting effect on GDP,and the pulling effect is more significant,which will promote the GDP to increase by 0.5031573%.Finally,this paper analyzes the causes of the lag from two stages,and analyzes the impact of the lag on all parties.Based on the conclusion of econometric analysis,it provides suggestions for the government and relevant investment departments,so as to arouse the attention of all parties to the time lag,scientifically plan investment and reasonably promote economic growth.