Pred System Of Regional Water Resource Constraints Space-time Collaborative Study

With the development of industrialization and the urbanization in the whole world, human have not only made full use of nature resource andnature environment, but also achieved some significant reconstructions. As a good result, the economy of the society has been improved greatly. In themeanwhile, it was obvious the nature resource and nature environment also had both effect and restriction over the development of the society-economy. Therefore, how to coordinate the relationship between the society-economyand the population increment, the resource decrement, the ecology aggravation, that is PRED problem, has become one of the mostimportant research topics for all the countries, and easily become a hot field for the analysis of the relationship between human and environment.After expounding the theory's origin for the region PRED problem's research and reviewing its developing history, we can conclude that the research on PRED problem has met with some questions as follows: lack of a whole analysis system, less study on forecasting the area PRED system with quantity and less investigate for the issue by relating to water resource. So aimed at all the above questions, the analysis on area PRED problem's research and the carrying capacity research on area water resource are combined together, and then a fresh proposition of area PRED problem'sresearch under the restriction of water resource and a new concept of valley PRED system are put forward.Through the theoretic constructing, in order to interpret and practicethe valley PRED system much clearly, Guanzhong segment in Weihe rivervalley, that is considered as the belt of the valley PRED system theory and practice. So using the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis methodology, the actuality and existing problems of valley PRED systemin Guanzhong were pointed out, and its system founded a dynamic model. This model simulated the near future developing progress- that was the result of three main factors' development, which concluded water resource, society-economy and environment. By running the linear-growth model and the feedback-growth model , we found that the out of line trend in thevalley PRED system is developing. By running the water-moved model, we found that putting into practice the water transfer is the value way to solvethe coupling problems of resource, society-economy development and environment.