China's Listed Companies' Financial Warning Mechanism

How to discover the hiding risks before they take into effects, and depend on what for the leaders to take actions so as to avoid them for the companies, which is the hot topic among the finance theory circles and the investment business circles. The security market of China is still under maturity, and the listing companies are confronted with numerous uncertainties. However, the research on financial forecast is on the preliminary stage, and the completed system is still far to be seen, so the research on the early warning mechanism for China's listing companies is of both scholar value and reality-related value.This paper's research aspects or the structure are as follows:At first, this paper gives appraisals on the financial forecast researches out of domestic and foreign scholars;Then, it does some analysis on the related theories of listing companies' financial forecast, which makes the separate theories as a whole one;On the third part, it designs a set of completed listing companies early warning mechanism according the characteristics of China's listing companies, and the aim is to give guidance for the listing companies and other companies as well;The fourth part is the most important one. It pays great attention on the practice of financial forecast. In order to give explanations of its implication, the financial forecast are demonstrated as follows: from the operators' angle, the financial forecast is a applied system of index early warning method, efficiency coefficient method, tendency figure early warning method, "A" marks method, and its cases study is also included in order to operate the theoretical research of the listing companies' cash flow, financial performance, and long term development strategy, at last, the conclusion is made as to provide a whole set of practice plan for the companies' short, medium and long term financial forecast.As the conclusion part, the fifth part gives some research on the financial forecasting model. In this part, based on the existing listing companies, the model uses the logistic regression method, collecting thecircle's sample (including common financial indexes and cash flow indexes). Then, some independent samples are adopted to test the value of this model, in order to exclude the influence made from the industrial differences, and guarantee the high reliability, accuracy and value for the building of multi-variable financial forecasting model.