| Shipping company is periodical industry. Its profit is fluctuant strongly by the period, and shipping company's value is fluctuant by the period, How to correctly estimate the value of the shipping company based in the periodicity of the shipping company is an important problem in the shipping company's investment management. This article is to discuss how to use the model of option to consummate the ways of shipping company's evaluation, then helps the investors and shipping companies to make correct investment decision.There are some mainly methods to evaluate enterprise: net present value method, relative value method, EVA and so on. But these methods can not evaluate shipping company exactly. In the downturn of shipping industry, the traditional methods tend to undervalue shipping company and abandon some profitable investment, Contrarily, In the upturn of shipping industry, the traditional methods tend to overvalue shipping company and redundant investment, All these problem go against the shipping company's evaluation. The main reason is that shipping is a periodical and fluctuant industry. These traditional methods can not exactly evaluate the value comes from fluctuating market. So this article wants to propose a new method which can exactly evaluate fluctuating value by introducing the option method to perfect the ways of shipping company evaluation. Then it can offer more exact information for investment and acquiring decision.In the first, the article discusses the disadvantage of traditional methods in evaluating shipping company and the characteristics of the fluctuation of the shipping company which is to explain the reasons of incorrect evaluation ways. On the basic of option theory and shipping company's fluctuant character, it introduces the option theory and describes the fluctuant character of shipping company. This is a new way that is based on the net present value method and improves the net present value method at the same time. Aiming at the disadvantage of net present value method which can not forecast fluctuant and uncertain cash flow, this article divides the evaluation of shipping company into two parts to forecast. One part is comparatively steady cash flow, it is easier to forecast exactly and evaluated by net present value method. Another part is fluctuant strongly. So this article proposes a new model which is more adapt toshipping company (shipping company value= present value of anticipative steady cash flow + option value). In order to discuss the model of evaluation deeply, it also chooses COSCO as an example to evaluate the value of COSCO and makes some investment decision based on the result of calculation. |
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