| In recent years, the global trade competition is becoming serious, with the rise of protectionism, China is frequently in trade disputes. The Sino-EU photovoltaic anti-dumping and countervailing case in 2012 is a typical example of trade protectionism.In the case, Germany keep changing its attitude, from supporting anti-dumping and countervailing to waiting, then to objecting. Study why Germany change its attitude can help China change trade friction thinking, innovate trade dispute settlement method and improve the quality of trade from the source.The author applies the method of game theory. By building the domestic interest groups’ game and Sino-German game, the author studied the dynamic process of changing attitude and analyzed its direct causes of the German attitude. Then, the author made empirical research on China and Germany bilateral trade status quo,structure, competitiveness and dependency four angles to find the underlying reasons.The research showed: There are three direct reasons that Germany changed its attitude in the Sino-EU photovoltaic anti-dumping and countervailing case. First, levy anti-dumping duties on China will bring heavy cost to Germany. Second, China took the trade strategy of “tit for tat†to warn Germany. Third, free trade is the German long-term optimal solution of the internal interest groups’ game. And there are four underling reasons that Germany changed its attitude. First, Germany has continuous surplus in China and Germany bilateral trade. Second, the financial crisis and the European debt crisis let Germany rely more on China. Third, German whole trade competitiveness to China is constantly improving. Fourth, Germany has stronger comparative advantage over China.Hence, the author summarizes five Suggestions: Balance and realize win-win trade. Improve the quality of trade, develop characteristic and advantage products.Develop high technology products. Develop whole industrial value chain. Increasecommunication of leader, strengthen economic and trade cooperation... |
