| With the rapid development of modernization and industrialization, environmental pollution and ecological damage of the city is becoming increasingly serious,modern urban agriculture ecological service for the shaping of healthy living space and ecological environment is more and more important.Urban agriculture can provide cities with fresh agricultural products,clean and adjust atmospheric environment,and meet the urban residents’ leisure sightseeing and other functions.Under the rapid development of industry and agriculture in Xi’an,urban and rural land resources,water resources, the atmosphere and ecological environment,were seriouly damaged and polluted.Urban agriculture ecological system as an important part of ecological system,the city not only provided production,but also provided air purification and regulation,water conservation and green city landscape ecological service and so forth,these has become increasingly important to maintain the sustainable development of cities and suburbs. At present, the evaluation of urban agriculture ecosystem service has become a hot issue of scholars in ecology, geography and ecological economic.The paper selected Xi’an as the research object,based on remote sensing image,the economic and social statistics and the field work data,application of 3S technology and the relevant theories and methods of ecosystem service value,combined with the status of development of urban agriculture in Xi’an and made appropriate modification for equivalent factor,to evaluate urban agriculture ecosystem service value,on the basis of the study,and then build the gray forecasting GM(1,1) model and the Markov model,to simulate and predict the change trend of urban agriculture ecosystem service in Xi’an city in future.The main conclusions are as follows:1.The change of agricultural land use:(1) From 2000 to 2013,the areas of diverse agricultural land have experienced greatly change in Xi’an city,urban agriculture land are mainly composed of cultivated land and forest land in Xi’an. (2) From 2000 to 2013,the conversion rate of agricultural land use was consistent with change dynamic degree of agricultural land use in Xi’an city,the garden increased most quickly,followed by grass and residential land; (3) During 2000-2013,the overall extent of agricultural land use was in the development period Xi’an city,it s speed is fast.2.The temporal evolution characteristics of Xi’an urban agriculture ecosystem service value:(1) 2000-2013, the total value of urban agriculture ecosystem services were 236.76×106 yuan,210.22×106yuan,219.85×106 yuan in Xi’an,it shows an increasing trend after the first reduction.In space,the total value presented a decreasing trend from south to north in Xi’an. (2) From the point of urban agriculture land use types,from 2000 to 2006,contribution of forest land is the largest in ecosystem services value,from 2006 to 2013,the total value of forest ecosystem services increased by 3.86%.From 2000 to 2013,the garden land area increased dramatically,which lead to the garden land ecosystem service value increased by 5.52%.During the 14 years,cultivated land,water area was continuously reducing,its provided the ecosystem service value reduced by 2.07%,1.47% respectively. (3) From the point of individual ecosystem service value,from 2000 to 2013,each individua ecosystem services value show a decline trend,but the degree of change was different,the value of water conservation and waste management was reduced most,and the value of soil and conservation is the largest of single ecosystem services value.The value of cultural entertainment and food production was reduced minimum.3.The spatial evolution characteristics of Xi’an urban agriculture ecosystem:The relative large decrease area of total ecosystem service value is mainly concentrated in the north central Lan Tian county and the south-east region Lin Tong,rendering narrowed down from 2000 to 2013,ecosystem service value have a slightly increased in party districts of Hu County,Changan County and Zhou Zhi County. Due to with the development of urban agriculture and the adjustiment of agricultural structure,the government established a series of urban agricultural park and tourism agricultural sightseeing park,the garden and forest land areas were substantial increased,these regions showed high ecological service value,it constituted ecological barrier of Xi’an social and economic development.4.Simulation results show that, (1) From the view of predict trend of individual ecosystem service value,the increase area of ecosystem service value of entertainment culture and air regulating functions is relatively large.With the increasing construction of urban agricultural park,various agricultural parks, pollution-free vegetable production bases and sightseeing parks are formed,forest and garden land area will continue to increase,garden and forest land will enhance capability of air regulation and ecological system maintenance.the material consumption level of people has been improved as well as people pursuit more spiritual culture and enjoy entertainment and leisure,the status of entertainment culture will continue to improve. (2) The total ecosystem services value showed an increasing trend from 2013 to 2033,annual growth of ESV was by 14469.5 million yuan.From 2000 to 2033,ecosystem service value of cultivated land show downward trend overall,while ecosystem service value of the garden land and forest land continued to rise,especially the changes of ecosystem service value of the garden was quite obvious,increased from 11640.8 million yuan in 2000 to 132146.2 million yuan in 2013.The government encouraged and constructed agricultural park,up to 143892 million yuan in 2033,water and grass land increased slightly.In general,from the point of the total ecosystem services value,ecological system is basically a benign development in Xi’an city in the next ten years. |
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