Based On The Theory Of Gray-Markov Forecasting Model For Main Land-Demand Of Xi'an City Foundation

The land-demanded quantity of city'foundation is a hinge for the land balance of supply and demand of city foundation ,the land-demanded forecasting of city foundation is a main and nuclear part,and a very important basic link as well in the overall planning of city'land-use.This essay is based on gray system and markov chain theory, it makes use the mathematics model to describe looked as if disorderly and unlingking land market of demand and supply. It also utilizes the correlation theory to analyse the affecting factors, and successes to forecast the land-demand of xi'an city(9 district) foundation in later 5 years,and analyses the latent land-supply ability of xi'an city foundation.The research purpose of the essay :it provides a scientific according of reference and decision-making for xi'an city planning and land-use overall planning, according to the effect of forecasting and analysis, it will guide present land resource mangement and arrange the coming city land-supply project .The research significance of the essay: it is utmost important that the land-demand forecasting of city foundation for establishing later several years land-supply plan.The effect of forecasting is accurate or not,will affect diretectly every department land-use arrangment and advisability of land-use space layout.at the same time,scientific forecasting of land-demand quantity may coordinate the contradictions of every land-use,and make land-supply of city foundation accommodate the development of society and economy.The research results are as follows: average opposite difference of main land-demand quantity of xi'an city foundation between model generated value and the actual value is 2.702%, and average precision of the prediction model is 99.7%,the grades of average residue and post-examination difference are very good. Undergoing this reorganization of markov chain, the probabilities of entrace to opposite accuracy evaluating district always locate a high level. In the correlation analysis of the affecting factors, according to affecting extent of every factor, the ranking is population of city region,the rapidity of urbanization, price index of land transaction,the average GDP of every people and financial income of region government.The prediction model can fit fact and forecast objectively later conditions,the credibility of forecasting result is positive.