The Research On The Urban Growth Boundaries Based On The Model Of ISM And CA-Markov

Cities are important places for human survival and development.In recent years,cities are getting a lot of resources and population with the gradual improvement of China's urbanization level.At the same time,the problem of big cities are appeared.A reasonable mangement of cities,especially demarcation of the urban boundary,has gradually become an important part of urban mangement.At present,based on the assumption that cities are expanding,most of the research on urban boundary mangement focuses on the "large and medium-sized" cities with rapid development and expansion stage.There are few studies on the cities with resource-exhausted and population loss.This paper takes districts under Hegang City one of the most important coal city of Heilongjiang Province as the research object.Firstly,selecting the urban expansion factors,constructing the directed graph and solving it by the ISM-AHP model.And then getting the expansion index based on the correction of each factor.Indeed,the expansion index just based on the condition of the city at some point.Secondly,getting the transfer matrix of ground class by ca-markov model,it's based on the urban evolution status in a certain period.Then,simulating the urban growth boundaries of 2020 and 2030.Finally,urban growth baunderies is analyzed with government planning.In order to provide theoretical reference for the management of Hegang city.The main conclusions are as follow:(1)In 2015,the urban expansion index was 93.26%.The urban expansion are not supported by current economic and social conditions.Urban management should reduce the supply of construction land and focus on internal efficiency improvement.Indeed,it is reasonable to reduce the size of the city.(2)The urban growth boundaries of 2020,based on the probability transfer matrix of 2010-2016,has a rapid expansion of construction land.It can be harmony with the land expansion when Hegang's GDP reaches the level of 2010-2012,so defined it as the acceptable boundaries.However the premise is that Hegang's GDP reaches the level of 2010-2012.(3)The urban growth boundaries of 2030,based on the probability transfer matrix of 2010-2016,has a rapid expansion of construction land.It can be harmony with the land expansion when Hegang's GDP reaches the level of 2010-2012.Howrver in order to control construction land strictly,it is necessary to restrict the expansion of construction land to this extent,so defined it as the prohibition expansion boundaries.That is the ultimate limit range of Hegang's expansion.(4)The overlap areas between urban growth boundaries of 2020 and planning boundaries is defined as priority boundaries.It is the priority development direction of the city,mainly located in the west and the northeast of the city.(5)For the first time,the ISM-AHP model is applied to the urban boundary management analysis,it embodies good applicability and can be applied to other urban studies by changing the influence factors.