Sichuan And Chongqing City Civil Pipe Network Gas Load Forecasting Software Research And Development

Load Forecast currently represents a new trend in scientific research with power load forecast a relatively mature field of study. Despite the progress made in gas load forecast, further research needs to be done to discover a more precise forecast modal. Load forecast of urban gas is an indispensible element in the production, regulation, transmission and distribution of the urban gas, a crucial factor to maintain a supply-demand balance in urban gas pipeline network, and is also important for the company to make timely and appropriate adjustment at the lowest cost for a secure and reliable operation of the gas transmission and distribution system. Gas source use declaration is necessary for the industrial purposes in Sichuan and Chongqing pipeline network and in this thesis, the focus will be on the forecast of change pattern of urban gas load for civil use.Qualitative and quantitative data analysis has been done to have an initial understanding of the change pattern of the gas load based on an extensive collection of the detailed historical data of the most typical urban gas use for civil purposes. Afterwards, a comparison of the most commonly used method of load forecast worldwide has been made to find out a quick and simple way suitable for Sichuan and Chongqing pipeline network load forecast. Hence, Grey Forecast Modal has been adopted, appropriate software developed for short-term and medium-term load forecast. During the software development, for a concern about the execution speed and reuse of the core load-forecasting algorithms, C++ Programming Language will be used to produce a component in DLL format. SQL Server 2000 will be adopted for the data storage, which also provide the views and procedures and facilitate a read-only access to the data for other systems.This thesis has introduced the structure and function of a self-developed software for Sichuan and Chongqing pipeline network urban gas load forecast, which has been delivered to the enterprise for practical operation and found to meet their requirements. It turns out that the system has produced a rather satisfactory forecast outcome after being used to numerous typical urban natural gas load forecast.