Simulation Study, Based On Complex Adaptive Urban Land Price Trend

People never stop studying the world, but up to now, there are no satisfactory explanations for many complex phenomena such as the development of culture, the blossom and decline of economy, the consciousness' coming into being and the ecosystem balance, which come from social system, economic system, biosystem and ecosystem. The complexity science is a new scientific category which was put forward in 1980s. It is a kind of science which studies complex systems. At present, it has been regarded as "the science of 21st century" by some scientists.Since 1980s, many kinds of thoughts have been used in urban research. The traditional, static research methods have been improved by dynamic methods with new thoughts. These new thoughts, especially complex adaptive system, are being acquainted and applied by researchers of urban system and become one of the main directions of science research.The trend of urban land price is studied in this paper, based on concepts and theories of Complex Adaptive System and urban price. There are mainly 5 contents in this paper.Firstly, recent research of urban development, applications of complex adaptive system and urban price is summarized. The aim, object, frame, and expected results of this paper are stated. By analyzing historical background and environment, the possibility and inevitability of appearance of CAS are showed. Basic descriptions and concepts, including adaptive agent, aggregation, nonlinearity, flow, diversity, tagging, internal models, building blocks are explained. Then system simulation, complex system modeling method based on agent, relative concept and features about urban land price are described.Secondly, according to several core characteristics complex system has, complexity of urban land price is analyzed. It is pointed out that CAS is an effective method.Thirdly, urban land price trend space simulation concept model based on CAS theory is outlined. Space system and economic system and agents such as family, enterprise and government are contained in this model.Fourthly, urban land price trend evolution model based on complex adaptive system (ULPT-CAS model) is established. The model is divided into three parts: environment, adaptive agents and interactional relation between them.Fifthly, urban dwelling land price space simulation model based on complex adaptive system (DPSM-CAS model) is established. In order to evaluate these models, actual land price relative data of Xi'an city are applied. The model is divided into two parts: urban family and environment. Avail function, internal model, parameter aggregate and learning algorithm are covered. Environment is expressed by binary system. Genetic algorithm is used in rule update.In the end, urban land price trend simulation platform using CAS theory is developed. The platform is designed for further research.