CAS Theory Based Modeling And Simulation Of Artificial Land Price System

In recent years, along with economic development and population growth, especially the rapid development of urbanization, urban land price has been showing a rising trend, and is given much attention by citizens, real estate developers and the governments. Urban land price research before mostly focused on land price assessment, and modeling in it usually used the traditional top-down approaches. While, integrating analysis and modeling technique of complex system and adopting a dynamic evolution way are of great theoretical and practical significances for urban land price research.Urban land price system is a typical complex adaptive system (CAS). CAS theory and agent-based modeling approach provide a new way of thinking urban land price system (ULPS). Based on the complex adaptive analysis of ULPS and according to CAS theory and thought of artificial societies, a simulation model of artificial land price system (ALPS) is established, and trends of urban land price under different conditions are studied in order to explore land development rules. Thus, urban managers can get knowledge of experiences from the so called artificial planning, as to make decisions more reasonably.The main contents of this thesis are as follows.Firstly, recent research about applications of CAS and thought of artificial societies in urban problems and urban land price is summarized. Research object, aim and frame and expected results are stated. Core concepts of CAS are explained; besides, adaptation and learning mechanism about adaptive agent are given in detail. Then modeling method of CAS, i.e., agent-based modeling and its simulation platform Swarm are described. Complex adaptive features of urban land price are analyzed according to several core characteristics CAS has. It is pointed out that thought of artificial societies is feasible to land price system modeling.Secondly, a conceptual framework of space evolution model of ALPS is outlined for the first time. The model displays the evolution process of urban macro-structure formation and urban land price qualitatively. It consists of economic...