Font Size: a A A

Studies On Enviroment-related Factors Of Regional Infectious Diseases And Transmisson Simulation Of Imported Infectious Diseases

Posted on:2013-01-11Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:A M HuoFull Text:PDF
GTID:1114330374960926Subject:Military Preventive Medicine
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
As one of the country with the most infectious diseases in the world, China is faced with seriousinfectious disease epidemic situation. It has seriously affected China's social and economicdevelopment, and bring a heavy burden on the state and people. The impact of the emergence of newglobal infectious diseases, and the resurgence of old infectious diseases, as well as natural andhuman factors have led to changes in the environment on human health in our country has beenreflected, such as SARS in recent years of new, highly pathogenic avian influenza and the spread ofHFMD epidemic causing serious harm to the health of our people. For the epidemic situation, it isurgent to applicate integration of spatial information technology, with a lot of basic geographic data,remote sensing data, meteorological data, infectious disease data and vector data in the basement ofthe unified space of infectious diseases for macroeconomic analysis of the relationship between thespread and environmental factors, and quantitative evaluate the impact of environmental factors onthe incidence and transimition of infectious diseases. It is also great significant to buildepidemiological models of infectious diseases to simulate the spread process of infectious disease,evaluate and optimise infectious diseases prevention, and control measures to guide prevention andcontrol of infectious diseases. In this study, the application of geographic information systems anddatabase technology integrated infectious disease surveillance data, the vector survey data, the basicgeographic and environmental data, meteorological data, population and socio-economic data invarious regions of China for many years. Based on the integrated infectious disease information datawarehouse establishment, infectious disease temporal and spatial distribution of multidimensionalinformation analysis and data mining is carried out. For example, applications based on panel dataPoisson regression, multi-level negative binomial regression algorithm, the spatial trend surfaceanalysis, scanning space cluster analysis, Logistic regression and other methods are applicated in theresearch of environmental impact factors of the spread of reginal infectious disesaes such as NorthChina natural foci of diseases, respiratory diseases and the recent epidemic of seriousgastro-intestinal diseases-foot and mouth disease. Furthermore, based on the virtual geographicalenvironment (Airport and Exhibition Center) and the virtual scene, crowd behavior and the spread ofimported infectious diseases process modeling and simulation was carried by the application of thesmall world model, SIR propagation model for the research of respiratory infections. And the effectsof sudden issued public health emergency disposal program has also been simulated and evaluatedby virtual simulation training system. At the same time, the virtual simulation system of the spread of respiratory diseases has been established.In the study of infectious diseases data warehouse of China, infectious disease surveillance data,vector data, demographic and socio-economic data, the basis of geographic environmental data ofChina from1994to2000has been integrated. With the application of decision trees, clustering, andneural network algorithm to find the preliminary environmental factors related to infectious diseasesby data mining, and initial screening of the environmental impact factors for different types ofinfectious diseases, so as to lay the foundation for further research focus on infectious diseases ofenvironmental impact factors.The temporal and spatial distribution and environmental impact studies of natural foci diseasesand respiratory diseases in North China have shown that the occurrence and spread of these twokinds of diseases in North China are closely related with geographical location, population,topography, and climate conditions of North China. HFRS, murine typhus and epidemic encephalitisB are the main three natural foci diseases of North China. Spatial aggregation exists within the eightkinds of infectious diseases (renal syndrome hemorrhagic fever, brucellosis, typhus, epidemic betabrain inflammation, rabies, anthrax, leishmaniasis, malaria). Hebei and Inner Mongolia have higherincidence. In North China, the incidence of HFRS and typhus has a positive correlation with theaverage air temperature. The incidence of brucellosis rate and the average maximum temperaturewas negatively correlated. Typhus and JE incidence rate was positively correlated with the averagerelative humidity. The incidence of HFRS was negatively correlated with sunshine. Among therespiratory tract infectious diseases in North China, the incidence of tuberculosis and the averagemaximum air temperature was negatively correlated. The incidence of measles and epidemiccerebrospinal meningitis was negatively correlated with the average air temperature. Scarlet feverincidence and the average temperature was positively correlated. The incidence of measles andminimum relative humidity, scarlet fever, whooping cough incidence and average relative humiditywas positively correlated.The research of the environmental factors impact of foot and mouth disease in ShandongProvince shows that2007-2009epidemic peak time is in in advance year by year, and the popularrange has expanded year by year, with the popular strength has increased year by year. Hand, footand mouth disease age of onset is less than6years, and the incidence of male is higher than fef male.EV71as the main type of virus. And high incidence is in the summer from May to July. Studies ofthe incidence of HFMD in counties and districts on the county scale has shown that whether therailway intersected with the county was positively correlated with the incidence of HFMD. TheHFMD incidence is positively with the county's average air temperature of this week, the averagesunshine hours of two weeks ago, and the average wind speed of two weeks ago. Case control study of the influencing factors of severe cases have shown that the risk of occurrence of severe waspositively related with gender, age, and the number of days from onset of symptoms to diagnosis,body temperature, rash in mouth, rash in abdomen, rash in buttocks, mental abnormalities,drowsiness, convulsions, complications.In this study, Using the monitoring data of Beijing Influenza A (H1N1) in2009and the2003SARS epidemic, a simulation system of the temporal and spatial spread of infectious diseases hasbeen built. The simulation and analysis has been carried out based on the popular features ofimported cases of the spread process of Influenza A (H1N1) and based on the densely populatedregion of SARS transmission characteristics for the spread process of H1N1and SARS.We obtained the remote sensing image data of0.6m resolution in Beijing area, the correspondgeographic information data, and make the detailed3D modeling of large venues within the CapitalAirport Terminal T2and Beijing Exhibition Center, including figures and modes of transport withinthe virtual simulation environment. The application of small-world model is applied to simulateinfluenza A H1N1and SARS spread process within the scene, track the path of the activities of thevirus carriers, and keep track of different time periods respiratory spread of infectious diseases andthe exposure range. The results show that the population density, transport method, and defensemeasures are closely related to the spread of respiratory infectious diseases. And the airportquarantine and isolation measures are also directly related to the speed and scope of the spread ofSARS. SIR model is used to study the spread of the respiratory tract infectious diseases within cities.The results show that a great relationship is between the spread of and respiratory tract infectiousdiseases the population density of each region. Emergency drill module is to simulate several publichealth emergencies through the Gaussian point source model in case of emergency response,evacuation and rescue treatment. Results showed that the planning of evacuation based on thenumbers of people in the venues can maximum extent possible to avoid or reduce casualties andincrease the speed of evacuation. It will be determined in the shortest time that the wounded shouldbe sent to which hospital to receive timely treatment based on the distance and medical conditions ofthe hospital, and find the best path that the relief supplies will be deliveried by the navigation data.And the route will be shown in the three-dimensional images on a map of visual representation andidentity, for decision-makers as soon as possible to make reasonable arrangements. The system canprovide data to support decision-making of the sudden outbreak of respiratory infectious diseasesand public health emergencies.
Keywords/Search Tags:reginal infectious disease, imported infectious disease, simulation, propagation model, data warehouse, weather conditions
PDF Full Text Request
Related items