Sars Epidemiology Simulation Analysis And Prevention And Control Strategy Research

Objective To know the epidemiology of SARS , find the different effect of the different control measures in different time (expand the treatment ranges of suspected case and limit population flows freely), make sure that the discrimination standard for the trendency to spread has been effectively controlled, the role of the super disseminator in the spread of SARS , SARS control strategy.Methods This paper apply the data about the SARS what has happened from October 2002 to May 2003 in China to the relevant research. By applying the principle, the theory and method of SD, Through the SARS epidemiology analysis, we have established the SARS epidemiology dynamic feedback simulation model, and have studied the imulation realization technology of this model.Results and Discussion1. Through the simulation analysis, we know that in the early time when SARS arises, we must simultaneously use two kinds of measures: expand the treatment ranges of suspected case and limit population flows freely to suppress the diffusion of SARS effectively. When the patient's average time that he can spread virus freely in public is lower than 10 days, this emphasis of the control should be put in the enhancement of the expand the treatment ranges of suspected case. In this way both the propagation rate of SARS and the economical influence can be effectively reduced. In addition, it has also produced the control effect influence of the two kinds of control measures to SARS and the judgement standard that whether or not the SARS proliferation tendency is suppressed and so on.2. Through the simulation analysis, we find that the SARS virus exist variation, the main reaction is after SARS spread from Guangdong , the SARS patient's infection probability averagely strengthened about 4.8% on the basis of the original data (7.33%); Two kinds of measures(expand the treatment ranges of suspected case and limit population flows freely ) have the late effect, is respectively 15 days and 20 days; The super disseminator can't change the spread trend of SARS, just increase the quantity of disease, lengthen the control time of SARS; Guangdong controled the epidemic situation through adopting the measure(expand the treatment ranges of suspected case) in the later period, the media has played a main role in limitting population flow; In addition, it has also produced the SARS distinguishing standard of control effect and the SARS optimization standard of prevention and control project.3.Through the simulation analysis, we find that When the SARS virus's toxicity was in peak period, SARS was controlled in Beijing by adopting the two kinds of measures( expand the treatment ranges of suspected case and limit population flows freely ) in the early time, But unceasingly strengthen the measure" limit population flows freely " is not the optimum control strategy in the entire process of SARS; expand the treatment ranges of suspected case and limit population flows freely have the late effect, is respectively 15 days and 20 days; In addition, it has also produced the SARS distinguishing standard of control effect and the SARS optimization standard of prevention and control project when SARS patient's infection probability is in peak period .These conclusions are very important to optimizing the SARS prevention and control plan. Moreover, the established model and the simulation realization technology have the widespread general significance to the epidemiology and andstrategy research of diseases such as avian influenza.