Study Of The Ecological Population Dynamics Of The Industry Cluster

The phenomenon of industrial cluster across most of industries around the world, it has become the key factor to promote regional economic development and upgrade the national competitiveness. Although the industrial cluster research in academia is not last long, the industrial clusters are surging in the country. Successful industrial cluster contributes to the prosperous economy, but it is not necessarily to success. Detriot auto industrial cluster in America and manufacturing industry in Northeast China already have declined. This shows that the cluster does not have inherent advantages, it will be dead, experiencing from formation,development to prosperity and decline in the evolution process. Therefore, it is a great practical study on the evolution of industrial cluster and will help explore the law of its development.Until now there are many researches on indutrial cluster, economics is the most extensive among them. With the advancement of interdisciplinary and ecology population, it currently becomes a growing concern that introduce the ecological theory to industrial cluster. This paper ueses the theory and method of ecology,bio-mathmatics to study the evolution of industrial cluster in order to explore the dynamics of evolutionary, to deepen understanding the process, to provide a reference for healthy industrial development. The paper compares to the similarities between industrial cluster and ecology population to provide the feasibility evidences. On the basis, it focuses on analyzing the main ecological characteristics, such as genetic variability, self-organization, competitive collaboration, mutually beneficial symbiosis. Meanwhile, by introducing the Malthusian-Logistic and Lotka-Volterra ecological species models, the paper constructs three dynamic equilibrium models: competitive balance model, mutualism model and balance of upstream and downstream. As the ecological evolution of industrial clusters is shown by a multi-stage approach, so the paper divides the process into four stages, including the initial, growth, maturity and final stage based on former literatures. Through analysizing the ecological charateristics in the four stages, it conculdes the stage model of ecological evolution. Meantime, the paper uses Taiwan bicycle industrial cluster as a case study to prove the stage model of this evolution process. Theoretical analysis and case study only explain the evolutionary process to some extent, quantitative model will further not only strength the convicing of this division, but also can use the model to determine the maturity of industrial clusters. In the last chapter, the paper takes Chengdu High-tech industrial cluster for example to further confirm the rationality and scientific of the forth stage model. Finally, in the same chapter, it uses the stage model to judge the present of Chengdu High-tech industrial cluster in the whole evolutinary process.The conclusions and innovations: First, there are differences in dividing the evolutionary stage with the existed literatures. Combined with the practical development of industrial clusters in China, this paper divides the evolutionary process into four stages, including the initial, growth, maturity and final stage. In each stage, the turning points are likely to face the danger of a recession. And in the final stage, the industrial cluster is not necessarily going to decline, maybe there are three outcomes,namely, upgrading,transfer and decay. Second, the paper uses qualitative and quantitative classificaiton methods to demonstrate the forth stage model of evolution. The present literatures about the evolution process are mostly use qualitative methods to draw rough sketch, not use quantitative model to prove. In this paper, it analyzes the qualitative stage, and uses quantitative model to count the exact point of each stage, not to limit the approximate diagram. Third, this paper uses empirical research on Chengdu Hi-tech industrial cluster and meantime determines the current stage of the evolutionary process. This will provide a new quantitive model method to explore the development in Chengdu Hi-tech and western industrial cluster.