System Dynamics-based Hotel Investment Projects In Economic Evaluation

Our country's industry is one of the earliest industries integrate with the international practice ,its competition degree has been quite intensely already.In the fierce market Hotels competition, to this hotel projects an appropriate market localization, how to adapt to domestic and foreign hotel industry development trends, identify the market segments, and then quantify the feasibility of instructions and evidence from a range of investment indicators, obtains the feasibility of the project investment conclusions, provide a reasonable reference to the investor's investment decision.The hotel operation process is a complex multi-factor system process, the entire operation process of the association between indicators of the business degree is high, and has some characteristics such as the cyclical dynamics,complex nature of multi-delay feedback and so on. This Papers Based on System Dynamics carries on the hotel project economic evaluation of investment projects, And complex linkages modeling between person, financial and objects in the hotel investment projects. The traditional hotel operations research is limited to a one-sided management of the hotel industry research lack of awareness of the global,dynamic In market forecasts, hotel financing,capital operation, cost control, revenue management systems. Therefore, some tools and forecast which based on traditional are difficult to predict accurately reflect the operational status and trends of the entire hotel.However, systems dynamic has made up for the above flaw ,whether in the form or nature ,are more comprehensive, more systematic, more intuitive reveal the essence of things, traced this by the sourceThis paper was based on the basic theory of project evaluation take the JA hotel as an example, conduct simulation to the operation of the hotel the next 20years . Analyses the which affecting the feasibility of the project whether or not from a system point of view. In the use of systematic, comprehensive, dynamic concept analysis to build a system dynamics model. The economic viability of the project to express their views, as well as the final project evaluation phase of the project proposed that the opinion To the project economical feasibility and the final project evaluation phase .Practical application of economic evaluation to the Uncertainty analysis of the project, the sensitivity analysis, aimed at provides a new tool to the corporate investment decision-making, and make hotel owners, investors, hotel operators and related participants more clearly understand and can be further use the hotel investment project feasibility analysis.