Environmental Learning Curve And Inter-provincial Energy Saving Potential In China

Since reform and open policy, especially walking into 21 century, China's new round of economic growth is mainly large-scale investment of iron and steel, chemicals, heavy machinery and other heavy chemical industry field. Then,a significant feature is high energy consumption in this stage, China's GDP growth is three percent of the world in 2003, however, 40 percent of the world's total raw coal is consumed in china and China's SO₂ emissions are highest in the world, therefore, China is facing more and more pressure in areas of Resources and environment. To alleviate such pressure, In the 11th five-year plan, a target of reducing energy intensity by 20% and the total emissions of major pollutants by 10% has been set by 2010. Then,when and how China's targets of energy-saving and reducing emission can achieve, which has become the main issue at this stage.Under the guidance of technical economics, resource and environmental economics, sustainable development and systems theory, under the joint auspices of the national social science fund project(03 BJY0088) and Shaanxi Normal University Graduate Innovation Fund, used statistical software (Lotus 1-2-3 and Excle) and geographic information systems (GIS), based on dates of more than 30 provinces from 1990 to 2005, through Finishing literature and data collection, on the basis of field investigation and substantial evidence, environment learning curve of energy consumption and SO₂ emission per ten thousand production value are proposed and built in various provinces. According to the environment learning curve of energy consumption and SO₂ emission, energy saving potentials and reducing emission potentials of SO₂ are analyzed on various provinces during the 11th Five-Year Plan,then, area sharing rate of Energy-saving target during the 11th five-year plan period have been analyzed and calculated. Through in-depth analysis and comprehensive study, the important results are showed:(1) Environment learning curve is constructed and verified initially. Environment learning curve, with the output increasing or production process repeating in the production process of enterprise and trade, is well-regulated change of resources consumption(or waste emissions) per ten thousand production value. Environment learning curve is formed by active learning and passive learning together, and environment learning curve is formed from enterprises to trade and to the regional. Through the analysis of China's mining industry and the whole region, resource consumption and waste emissions per ten thousand production value present exponential decay with the per capita GDP growth, correlation coefficient of which is mostly above 0.90. (2) Energy consumption and SO₂ emissions per ten thousand production value also showed exponential decay with the per capita GDP growth in China's various province, which accorded with the logarithm-linear model and Stanford B-type of environment learning curve. In addition to Hainan, Ningxia, Guizhou, correlation coefficients of these models is above 0.90 in other province. Then, these models provide a theoretical basis for analysis of energy saving potentials, reducing emission potentials and area sharing rate of Energy-saving target during the 11th five-year plan period.(3) From time angle, the total output of energy consumption and SO₂ emissions are increasing year by year with economic development in China's various province. Whereas, Energy consumption and SO₂ emissions per ten thousand production value are declining year by year with the economy developing and the technological level improving in China's various province, that is, energy efficiency and environmental protection technology is gradually improving in china.(4) From spacial perspective, in the central and western regions where economy lag behind and energy production are bigger,Energy consumption and SO₂ emissions per ten thousand production value are higher and the potentials of energy-saving and reducing emission is bigger, such as Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Ningxia, Gansu , And other provinces; however, in the eastern coastal developed areas, Energy consumption and SO2 emissions per ten thousand production value are lower and the potentials of energy-saving and reducing emission is smaller, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, And other central provinces; then the potentials of energy-saving and reducing emission is Between the two in Other provinces. Therefore, spatial distribution of energy-saving potentials provides a strong basis for regional decomposition of energy-saving targets in china.(5) Based on environment learning curve of energy consumption per ten thousand production value, energy-saving target during the 11th five-year plan period is shared in various provinces. The results showed that: energy-saving contribution is impacted by not only energy consumption per ten thousand production value and the net decrease,but also gross domestic product and the total energy consumption in China's various provinces, contribution rate of energy saving is high not only in Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Liaoning where energy consumption is large but also in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai where economy is developed, whereas, contribution rate of energy saving is lower due to small economic scale in Hainan, Yunnan, Qinghai, Ningxia and so on. Consequently, this paper gives regional distribution pattern of energy-saving potentials per 10 yuan production value and area sharing rate during the 11th five-year plan period.