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In The Southern Part The Development Of Strategic Research

Posted on:2009-11-15Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:H CaiFull Text:PDF
GTID:2199360272972680Subject:Environmental Science
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Urbanization level is an important symbol of the economic level in a country or region. The development of urbanization makes a key important effect on expediting region economic progress and promoting advancement of social civilization. The study of urbanization development in Shannan area, especially for the problem that chose the right way to develop this area's urbanization will enhance the understandings to urbanization disciplinarian in Shannan area, in ShaanXi province and in the whole western area. And base on the disciplinarian, it could give a helpful and constructive suggestion to make decision about urbanization way in Shannan area. All of these have a strong theory meaning, realistic meaning and applying value about widening study thoughts of city economy in China, speedup urbanization course in Shannan area and better accelerating economic development in region and the whole country, then realize the modernization of Chinese villages.Recent years, there are different key points on study of urbanization problem inside and outside country. The outside make the key point on mutual effect of urbanization development and some idiographic species or phenomenon. However the inside keeps more attention on drive mechanism, effect factor and region diversity of urbanization, also on calculating urbanization level, on coupling relation between economy, resource, environment and urbanization, as well as on stratagem of urbanization development. Among datum in existence, there are a lot about problems of urbanization development in ShaanXi province, but nothing have been found about study of urbanization development ways in Shannan area. So based on refer to lots of literatures and datum adds on surveyed on the spot, and through the way combining determine the nature and fix quantify, this paper had a study on several problems. They are urbanization development course, calculating urbanization level, region diversity of urbanization development, relationship between urbanization and REE problem and forecast of urbanization development in Shannan area etc. Then get the result of urbanization development stratagem in future of Shannan area. The mean result as follows:(1)All of them present a stage rule about urbanization development course in Hanzhong, Ankang and Shangluo from the year 1949 to 2005: There are two stages in Hanzhong, one is being at a standstill(1949-1978), the other is climb steadily(1978-2005). There are three stages inAnkang: turbulence stage (1949-1962), stagnant stage (1962-1978) and climb stage (1978-2005). There are also three stages in Shangluo: progress slowly (1949-1978), climb steadily (1978-1999) and advance speedily (1999-2005). Hanzhong stands front in the whole urbanization level, because its economic level is comparatively high. On the aspect of urbanization development speed, Hanzhong gets the highest in 85 period, Ankang in 45 period and Shangluo in 95 period.(2)Different with urbanization level educed by non-agricultural population, it presents a obvious fluctuation of integrative urbanization level in Shannan area from the year 2000 to 2005. The three regions all present their peak value of integrative urbanization level in the year 2002. After 2002, the development current of integrative urbanization level present a current of went up steadily ,which is same with non-agricultural population urbanization level in both Ankang and Shangluo. However Hanzhong's integrative urbanization level gets a obvious decreasing current after 2002.(3)Through main component analytical method, we made a analysis about 28 county areas' urbanization level inside the research region. The result shows that borough Hantai in Hanzhong gets the fist in the fist main component, which is also called population urbanization quality factor. County Chenggu in Hanzhong gets its first in the second main component, which is economic factor. County Zhenping in Ankang gets its first in the third main component, which is resource economization factor. Country Langao in Ankang gets its fist in the fourth main component, which is population employment structure factor. In the integrative score of urbanization level, borough Hantai still get the fist low.(4)Though clustering analysis, we set off the 28 county's urbanization development status into four grads types:①Section of comparatively highest urbanization level. This type only includes borough Hantai in Hanzhong, and its character is that the integrative urbanization level is highest.②Section of higher urbanization level. This type includes county Chengg, county Mian, county Lueyang, borough Hanbin and borough Shangzhou.③Section of middle urbanization level. This type includes county Nanzhen, county Yang, county Foping, county Shiquan, county Ningshan.④Section of lower urbanization level. This type includes county Xixiang, county Ningqiang, county Zhenba, county liuba, county Hanyin, county Ziyang, county Langao, county Pingli, county Zhenping, county Xunyang, county Baihe, county Luonan, county Danfeng, county Shangnan, county Shanyang, county Zhenan, county Zhaishui.(5)The relationship between urbanization and economic development in Shannan area is wholly accorded with the common rule of international. It shows a collectivity negative relation between urbanization level and cultivated land area. There exists a obviously relationship like inverse U of Kuzinieci curve, and the relationship between urbanization level and diversification of cultivated land area likes a typical positive U of Kuzinieci curve. The relationship between urbanization level and discharges amounts of the industrial "three wastes" still show obviously inverse U or positive U of Kuzinieci curve.(6)Based on current extrapolated model and time serial model, we had a forecast of future urbanization development level in Shannan area. The results show that till the year 2010, the three regions' urbanization level will get 21.83%, 16.08% and 18.69% respectively. Those are different from the development goal mentioned in the tenth five-year-plan outline of country economy and society development in Hanzhong, Ankang and Shangluo.(7)In the future's development and construction of urbanization, Shannan area fits for small towns construction way combined by the mode from top to bottom and from bottom to top. It just means making three regions' leading effect in economy as premise, then put the urbanization construction's key point on potentially county areas, after that form a pattern that big cites and small towns developing in-phase. In material work, we should keep point on following. Develop county's economy energetically and expedite structure adjusting of country industry. Use local resource to develop green industry and let eotourism drive economic development. Strengthen returning the grain plots to forest and conserving water and soil in order to prevent and cure entironmentdeteriorating. Retain person with ability in order to construct new Shannan together.
Keywords/Search Tags:urbanization, REEsysterm, level grads, ARMA model, Shannan area
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