Real Estate Mortgage Risk Analysis And Prevention

Along with the personal housing mortgage loan business developed rapidly in recent years, a variety of risks has become increasingly prominent.Therefore,personal housing mortgage loan risk is the main object in the paper.Personal housing mortgage loan risk includs the disposal of collateral risk,liquidity risk,interest rate risk,prepayment risk,credit risk and so on.Since the U.S.subprime mortgage crisis broke,personal housing mortgage loans risks are concerned by commercial bank.U.S.subprime mortgage risk is default risk,which is different from the China's major commercial banks personal housing mortgage loan risk.Because of the "no debt is easy" concept,China's major commercial banks personal housing mortgage loan risk mainly refers to the cost of the borrower repayment to the bank in advance.Although the risk of early repayment of Subordinated Debt crisis and the United States belong to two completely different types of risk,but this problem of personal housing mortgage loan risk management can not ignore,we should draw some experience from the Subordinated Debt,so that we can continuously improve the ability of management of China's commercial banks personal housing mortgage loan risks.In this paper,the prepayment risk will be divided into normal group and the early repayment group.We have chosen 14 public variables factor to reduce the variable dimensions and eliminate the multi-collinearity of variables.The followed is the discriminant function analysis.The discriminant function can predict the classification of unknown personal housing mortgage loans.At the same time,discriminant analys is the foundation for the next cluster analysis.Through cluster analysis,the sample is classified into different risk levels.In addition, Cluster analysis provided an analytical platform to identify different levels of prepayment risk and the key factors.Based on the above empirical analysis,the final Logistic regression analysis can identify the impact of significant factors of the different types of prepayment risk rating, from which we can lay a foundation for the theory of the early repayment of bank risk management.